Opposition parties still unsure of Rahul’s appeal

There is a new awakening among the seniors of the Congress party, post-Rahul elevation to the highest post in the party. There were several apprehensions before his elevation as the President of the Congress party in view of his inability to rise to the occasion despite opportunities galore presented to him to prove his mettle. 

Among those, the first concern of the seniors was whether he was fit to handle the responsibility. The second was whether their own position would be safeguarded at all in the new pecking order. There was always a lurking fear among the seniors that a brash Rahul Gandhi may not match Sonia Gandhi's skills in wooing the Opposition or in knitting a pan-Indian alliance against Narendra Modi.

Their worst fears are coming true now. Those who were pressing for Rahul's elevation were dismissive of the "negative thinking" of such minds. Their argument was that 'Rahul has it in him. He has the natural charm of the Nehru-Gandhi family and leadership qualities".   

Though no one explained the 'charm' of Rahul, it was obvious that they were blind to the demanding political realities. Sonia Gandhi was certainly a tall leader and intelligently manipulated the room available for politicking, understanding the political compulsions well. The non-BJP Opposition experienced a certain comfort level in dealing with her knowing her to be the absolute authority in the party.

It is not the case with Rahul Gandhi. No one, to this day, knows whether he is guided by someone and if so, whether it is with the full knowledge of his mom, Sonia Gandhi. His failure in talking to the potential allies is puzzling to them. Why cannot Rahul handle the discontent brewing against the Narendra Modi government properly and make good use of it? This is not a question that bothers the Opposition alone. It is irking the senior Congress leadership too.

Then there are several like a Salman Khurshid or Ashok Gehlot wondering over it. Not just these but others like Ghulam Nabi Azad too are miffed. Last week Azad categorically stated that his being a Muslim was perhaps seen as a disqualification nowadays in the party when it came to campaigning. Digvijay Singh too was a humbled lot when he said that it would be better for the party if he does not speak regarding the MP elections.

Mayawati's open opposition to any alliance with Rahul Gandhi perhaps has come as a wake-up call to the Congress seniors. Mayawati is not naive to get into any alliance with the Congress out of UP only to strengthen the latter. 

The more she or the likes of her permit it, the dicier the situation gets for them. Mamata too is wary of it and hence the distance so far. Akhilesh is no novice too to play alongside the Congress. 'Suum cuique' it is, Rahul should know. One's compulsions drive one's ambitions and pairing and partnering for progress is not always necessary. This is different when it comes to someone like Chandrababu Naidu who is quite shrewd and knows why he prefers to ally with Rahul Gandhi in Telangana.

Congress has nothing to gain here with the TDP by its side. At least not as much as the TDP would in AP with a positive result in Telangana. If the TDP-Congress combine comes to power in Telangana, then Naidu might not mind joining hands with the Congress in AP too. Of course, he will not be talking to the local Congress leadership. He may not even entertain it. It would be quite humiliating for the APCC leadership, but it will have little choice with Naidu talking directly to Rahul. Naidu's stature dwarfs Rahul's despite the latter being a Prime Ministerial candidate.

The Congress, going by the surveys conducted by several agencies in AP so far, has about 7-8 per cent vote intact in the truncated State and this would sail with Rahul Gandhi without fail. An alliance with the Congress would help the TDP offset the voter deficiency of its electoral diet, by ensuring minority and Dalit vote to some extent. This could cause much heartburn to the Congress leadership in AP too. Yet, it is a Hobson's choice for them. Congress seniors are also worried about the party's fate in Karnataka. Despite being in the Government, they are not sure whether Rahul will be able to retain the party's toe-hold there.

Tamil Nadu does not offer any wisdom to anyone and Rahul will never understand the Dravidian politics anyway. Rahul & Co may be banking on the positive outcome of the Assembly elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (it is still an upper hand for the TRS in Telangana), but this will not help in rallying the anti-BJP Opposition behind Rahul. It will prefer to tread with greater caution in the event of a Congress sweep in joining hands with it as it could prove detrimental to their interest. A weaker Congress is good for the anti-BJP regional leaders. The voices of Congress veterans are pointing a finger to this reality.