BJP can win up to 450 seats in the next general elections whenever they are conducted. This is not prophecy but my projection after a detailed state-by-state, party-by-party analysis. The premise of my analysis is the mood of the nation and an assured consolidation of rising support to PM Narendra Modi’s governance delivery in the last three years. However, BJP National President Amit Shah has set a more subdued goal of Mission 350 for the party to accomplish. He is probably being very modest in his goal setting process, to ensure it is realistic and achievable.
Back in 2014, BJP overshot its Mission 270 by over 8 seats. As I foresee, the current mission will be overshot by many seats in the future general elections. In the current 16th Lok Sabha, BJP-led NDA has 339 seats out of which BJP by itself has 278. The alliance parties’ contribution in the last election is a mere 61 seats. While the NDA alliance partners might retain a few of their seats, the UPA parties and non-NDA and non-UPA parties are bound to experience historic depreciation of their seats at Lok Sabha in the next elections.
Leading from the front in the loser’s league will be Indian National Congress. This party with an invisible leadership and gaping hole at the helm of the party is slated to face an unprecedented and historic defeat. It is bound to also sink any party that would join it in their alliance. In fact, I foresee even DMK and other small parties which are in UPA alliance currently will find their way out of this failing alliance. It can happen way ahead of the next elections.
Indian National Congress has 44 seats and its alliance parties contribute just another 5 seats. Dwindling UPA sits not so pretty with 49 seats in the 16th Lok Sabha. With an exception of 5 small parties like IUML, Kerala Congress, RSP, CPM and Kerala Congress (J) – all from Kerala – I don’t see anyone else will partner with this irrelevant political formation. Already, 14 parties withdrew from UPA since 2014 elections. It showcases how weak, isolated and disrespected Indian National Congress leadership is in this phase of contemporary politics in India.
Third front is a distant dream. Even if it were to form for electoral reasons, it will have only Communist parties leading and following it. There would be none others in this faceless front. Unfortunately for the opposition and very fortunately for BJP, there is no match to PM Narendra Modi governance competence, leadership and BJP’s ideological acceptance across India in this phase of Indian politics. My analysis is not driven out of misplaced arrogance, nor is it driven out of over confidence with successive electoral victories, in the recent past. I am humbly grounded to the political facts and fundamentals that ‘All politics is local,’ ‘Politics is fluid,’ ‘a day in politics is too long’ and ‘everything that rises will fall.’
However, this phase of BJP rise in Indian politics seems to stay through for a longer phase than Congress party’s run in the last 70 years. There are critical factors, which influence my analysis to arrive at this substantive conclusion. Most of the Indians are young. Indians are the rising stars of the world today. This trend will continue, as current global super powers are busy fighting their wars for their continuity and survival. Indians across the spectrum are rising above religion, caste, creed, sex, language and regions to recognise the need for a higher order of unification of this nation.
A majority of Indians now recognise that Congress brand of politics has divided this nation to a level, that India can leverage its strengths and grow to be a global super power. With an exception of few shallow, pessimistic, brainwashed, divisive and self-proclaimed intellectuals, a majority of the Indian population realises that Congress has not delivered even basics in their six-decade-long dynastic rule in India. While many educated Indians left this nation for brighter prospects and better opportunities to the other side of the world, those who stayed back were resigned to their fate with a hopeless belief – ‘this is how, India works’ (India aise hi chalega).
However, 2014 election outcomes gave both resident and non-resident Indians an unparalleled hope and positive aspiration that things can get better in India too. India can also rise and challenge the current world order. These new set of beliefs are driving this nation forward like never before. The new India is real. However, few political parties are still blinded and numbed by an ideology that differs from what Indians today need. Their ideology and governance format is being rejected at every electoral opportunity, but they continue to be blind to the writing on the wall.
BJP has the pulse of this nation. PM Narendra Modi is leading the agenda of 1.25 billion Indians silently through his relentless, focused, efficient and goal-oriented governance. The conviction, competence and strength that PM Narendra Modi brings to table is unmatched so far at the role of a Prime Minister.
The speed of transformation through reforms is almost unreal and it looks as though the aspiration of the Prime Minister supersedes the ambition of the people of India by many times. A different India is visible not just for majority Indians, but also to the world. That’s the key reason for our giant neighbour and continental super power China to feel so unsettled, intimidated and provoked. While Indians chose their Prime Minister with clear expectations in 2014 with an independent and strong mandate, the world was in for a surprise and that continues even after 3 years.
The world is still to digest the unexpected turnaround of India. What they visualised as a sleeping elephant turned out to be a roaring lion. The world order is challenged and so is the status quo at the Indian borders with Pakistan and China. There are few ruffled nations with the unexpected rise of India, but there are many happy faces in the world too, inviting India to the global center-stage.
Indians in India and across the world are watching all that’s being drive by PM Narendra Modi and his government and are silently feeling proud, secure and amazed at the great possibilities for their nation. They have all been acting with that intent and extending their support at almost every electoral opportunity since 2014. One has to be necessarily a sharp analyst to be an effective strategist.
With the respect I earned for my analysis and an international reputation for my strategies, I state all the above with full responsibility and objectivity. Indian politics are set to transform like never before. PM Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah are spearheading this historic transformation, which was extremely essential for India to rise and claim its deserving place in the world.
In conclusion, I strongly believe the BJP official mission of 350 will be surpassed by about another 100 seats, to hit an unprecedented strength of 450+ seats in Lok Sabha in the next general elections.