Trade Setup for July 16: Nifty rebounds above 25,200; Market remains cautiously optimistic

The Indian stock market staged a strong recovery on Tuesday, snapping a four-session losing streak as the Nifty climbed 114 points to close at 25,196. The rally was driven by a positive global setup, cooling domestic inflation, and broad-based buying across sectors.

After opening on a firm note, the benchmark index steadily gained through the day, reclaiming the 25,200 level and closing near the session’s high. The Sensex and Nifty both rose 0.5%, while the Nifty Midcap index outperformed with a 1% gain. The Nifty Smallcap 100 also hit its highest level since the rally began in April.

All sectoral indices ended in the green, with Auto, Healthcare, Pharma, and Consumer Durables among the standout performers. Sentiment was buoyed by June CPI data, which fell to a 77-month low of 2.1%, easing rate concerns and providing a tailwind to equities.

Among stocks, HCL Technologies was the top Nifty laggard, falling over 3% after the company cut its FY26 margin guidance. This led to a mixed response from brokerages, citing near-term margin pressures.

Looking ahead, market attention will turn to key earnings releases from Tech Mahindra, L&T Technology Services, ITC Hotels, and Ixigo. Meanwhile, Trent is also in focus after athleisure giant Lululemon announced plans to debut in India via a retail and e-commerce partnership with Tata CLiQ.

From a technical perspective, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said a sustained move above 25,350 could drive further upside. Rupak De of LKP Securities noted that while Nifty faced resistance around 25,250, a breakout above 25,260 could pave the way to 25,400.

However, if the index fails to hold above 25,260, it may retest support at 25,000 or even 24,900. Vikram Kasat of PL Capital and Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities echoed similar views, citing strong support near 25,000 and resistance around 25,325–25,331. Shah also advised long traders to maintain a stop loss at 25,000.

As the market digests earnings and awaits global cues, including US CPI data, traders will watch if bulls can build on this recovery or face renewed resistance.