Trade Setup for June 23: Nifty eyes upside despite US-Iran geopolitical risks

The Nifty 50 ended a three-day losing streak on Friday with a robust rally, supported by firm global cues and improving investor sentiment. The index surged 319 points to close at 25,112 — the highest in six sessions — as market participants shrugged off initial concerns around escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

US President Donald Trump’s statement that a decision on possible intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict would be taken in two weeks helped ease some of the geopolitical fears. As a result, Indian markets witnessed broad-based buying across sectors, signaling the return of risk appetite.

Top gainers on the Nifty included Trent, Jio Financial, and Mahindra & Mahindra, while Hero MotoCorp, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, and Maruti were among the top losers. The Sensex and Nifty both advanced over 1% intraday, closing at their respective session highs.

For the week, the Nifty logged a gain of 1.60%. Midcap and Smallcap indices also saw a bounce, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 1.46% and the Smallcap 100 gaining over 1%.

All sectoral indices ended in green, with Realty, PSU Banks, Auto, and Metals outperforming. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) booked profits.

Looking ahead, analysts advise caution as global developments and macroeconomic data like the US PMI remain in focus. However, market experts continue to see strength in the index.

According to HDFC Securities' Nagaraj Shetti, the trend remains bullish with the next upside targets around 25,250 and potentially 25,650. Minor dips toward the support zone of 24,900 could present buy-on-dips opportunities.

LKP Securities' Rupak De noted that reclaiming the 21-day EMA may support continued momentum. He sees support at 24,850 and potential upside toward 25,350 and beyond, provided the index sustains above key levels.

Devarsh Vakil of HDFC Securities expects resistance at 25,222 and support at 24,900.

Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index ended at 56,252.85, gaining 1.22% and breaking above its short-term falling trendline. SAMCO’s Om Mehra said the breakout suggests a resumption of the broader uptrend, with support at 55,800 and upside resistance levels at 56,700 and 57,050 — the all-time high.

In summary, while geopolitical tensions may spark near-term volatility, analysts remain optimistic on India’s equity markets with technical indicators favoring continued strength, especially on dips toward key support levels.