PL Sector Update: Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Weekly Update �?? Crop acreages marginally up; +0.7% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 09nd Aug�??23- Early signs of EL-Nino; likely to intensify going forward
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Himanshu Binani - Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Weekly Update �?? Crop acreages marginally up; +0.7% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 09nd Aug�??23- Early signs of EL-Nino; likely to intensify going forward
§ Crop Acreages as on 11th Aug�??23: marginally up; +0.7% YoY
§ Rainfall as on 09th Aug�??23: Early signs of EL-Nino; likely to intensify going forward
§ Water Reservoir levels as on 10th Aug�??23- down 6% YoY; South India remains lower
§ Sowing over in 85% of India�??s kharif area
§ Dry phase to rule large parts of the country as monsoon takes a backseat
§ Chinese pesticide exports decreased 17.54% year-on-year from January to May 2023, industry development staying stable
Exhibit 1: Crop Acreages as on 11th Aug�??23 marginally up; +0.7% YoY
| (Lac Ha) | Till 04th Aug | Till 11th Aug | |||||
| Crops | In 2023 | In 2023 | In 2023 | In 2023 | In 2022 | YoY % | WoW% |
| Rice | 283 | 283 | 283 | 328.2 | 312.8 | 4.90% | 16.00% |
| Pulses | 106.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 113.1 | 122.8 | -7.90% | 5.80% |
| Coarse Cereals | 164.2 | 164.2 | 164.2 | 171.4 | 167.7 | 2.20% | 4.40% |
| Oilseeds | 179.6 | 179.6 | 179.6 | 183.3 | 184.6 | -0.70% | 2.10% |
| Sugarcane | 56.1 | 56.1 | 56.1 | 56.1 | 55.2 | 1.60% | 0.00% |
| Jute & Mesta | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7 | -5.60% | 0.20% |
| Cotton | 119.2 | 119.2 | 119.2 | 121.3 | 122.5 | -1.00% | 1.70% |
| Total | 915.5 | 915.5 | 915.5 | 979.9 | 972.6 | 0.70% | 7.00% |
| Incremental WoW | 85.1 | 85.1 | 85.1 | 64.4 | 60.9 | -5.40% | |
Source: Agricoop, PL
Exhibit 2: Rainfall as on 09nd Aug�??23: Early signs of EL-Nino; likely to intensify going forward
| Week ending | % Deviation from Normal | ||||
| Date | Country as a whole | Northwest India | Central India | South Peninsula | Northeast & East India |
| 31-May-23 | 22 | 337 | 13 | -24 | -45 |
| 07-Jun-23 | -57 | 69 | -71 | -63 | -84 |
| 14-Jun-23 | -53 | -20 | -73 | -54 | -48 |
| 21-Jun-23 | -33 | 37 | -60 | -58 | -18 |
| 28-Jun-23 | -16 | 42 | -17 | -45 | -21 |
| 05-Jul-23 | -7 | 37 | -6 | -32 | -17 |
| 12-Jul-23 | 2 | 59 | 4 | -23 | -19 |
| 19-Jul-23 | 2 | 46 | 8 | -19 | -19 |
| 26-Jul-23 | 5 | 34 | 14 | 2 | -25 |
| 02-Aug-23 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 2 | -24 |
| 09-Aug-23 | 0 | 18 | 7 | -7 | -19 |
Source: IMD, PL
Exhibit 3: Water Reservoir table as on 10th Aug�??23: down 6% YoY; South India remains lower
| Reservoir levels | Current Year | Last Year | Avg. of last 10 years |
| All India | 62% | 66% | 57% |
| North India | 78% | 58% | 63% |
| East India | 40% | 29% | 44% |
| West India | 67% | 74% | 58% |
| Central India | 69% | 58% | 59% |
| South India | 54% | 84% | 58% |
Source: CWC, PL
Exhibit 4: Weekly Crop Prices continues to be remunerative
| Crops (RS/Qntl) | 4th Week July'23 | 1st Week Aug'23 | 2nd Week Aug'23 | 2nd Week Aug'22 | YoY (%) | WoW (%) | Avg. July'23 | Change(%) |
| Wheat | 2,501 | 3,932 | 4,259 | 2,412 | 76.60% | 8.30% | 2,491 | 71.00% |
| Jowar(Sorghum) | 3,392 | 3,387 | 3,493 | 2,695 | 29.60% | 3.10% | 3,398 | 2.80% |
| Bajra(Pearl Millet) | 2,109 | 2,134 | 2,178 | 2,140 | 1.80% | 2.10% | 2,581 | -15.60% |
| Arhar Dal (Tur) | 11,968 | 12,743 | 11,809 | 10,008 | 18.00% | -7.30% | 10,645 | 10.90% |
| Maize | 2,432 | 3,372 | 3,402 | 2,170 | 56.80% | 0.90% | 2,295 | 48.20% |
| Green Gram Dal | 9,967 | 9,855 | 10,122 | 8,333 | 21.50% | 2.70% | 9,131 | 10.90% |
| Black Gram Urd beans | 8,235 | 8,285 | 8,239 | 6,668 | 23.50% | -0.60% | 8,308 | -0.80% |
| Cotton | 6,739 | 7,072 | 7,227 | 9,946 | -27.30% | 2.20% | 6,657 | 8.60% |
| Soybean | 5,165 | 5,253 | 5,194 | 5,875 | -11.60% | -1.10% | 5,122 | 1.40% |
| Paddy(Dhan) | 2,243 |