A BREWING POLITICAL CONTROVERSY
A major political controversy is unfolding across South India over the proposed redrawing of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies, commonly known as delimitation. The issue has sparked apprehension, particularly in southern states, due to its potential impact on political representation.
Delimitation aims to reshape parliamentary seats based on population figures. While northern states stand to gain more seats, southern states may see minimal changes or even a reduction. Tamil Nadu is expected to be among the most affected.
By 2026, India’s population is projected to reach 1.42 billion. Under the proposed adjustments, Karnataka’s Lok Sabha seats may increase from 28 to 36, Telangana’s from 17 to 20, and Andhra Pradesh’s from 25 to 28. Tamil Nadu may see a marginal increase from 39 to 41, while Kerala, with the slowest population growth, could lose a seat, dropping from 20 to 19. Meanwhile, northern states like Uttar Pradesh could see their seats rise dramatically from 80 to 128, and Bihar from 40 to 70.
India has historically experienced uneven population growth, with different states at varying stages of demographic transition. While northern states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh have seen higher population growth—resulting in a likely increase in parliamentary representation—southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana) and parts of western India have successfully implemented population control measures. However, this success now appears to be working against them in terms of political representation.
The implementation of the 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and the state assemblies may further impact seat adjustments, adding another layer of concern for the southern states.
The Southern India has undergone a significant demographic shift, with declining fertility rates. Chief Ministers N Chandrababu Naidu (Andhra Pradesh) and M K Stalin (Tamil Nadu) have publicly voiced concerns over the long-term consequences of declining birth rates on political representation. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a key demographic indicator, estimating the average number of children a woman will have during her reproductive years. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, meaning the population remains stable. Any figure below this threshold signals a declining population. India’s TFR was recorded at 2.01 in 2022, dipping below the replacement level. In 2015-16, it stood at 2.2, reflecting a gradual decline. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), most southern states now have TFRs well below 2.1, while only Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand still record fertility rates above the replacement level. Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu has frequently cited these figures in his arguments against the delimitation proposal. For decades, the southern states earned praise for successfully implementing family planning programs through women’s education and sterilization campaigns. However, this very success now threatens to reduce their parliamentary representation.
The delimitation could lead to a significant shift in political power, as the states with larger populations will gain more parliamentary seats at the expense of those with lower populations. The total number of Lok Sabha seats may increase from 543 to 753, with each constituency representing approximately 20 lakh people.
Despite Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s assurances that no injustice will be done to southern states, concerns persist. The Indian Constitution mandates periodic readjustment of constituency boundaries under Articles 82 and 170 to ensure equal representation based on population. However, the southern leaders argue that the process disproportionately penalises the states that have successfully controlled population growth. With political stakes high and regional disparities deepening, delimitation is shaping up to be a contentious issue, particularly in South India. The debate is likely to intensify as the 2026 deadline approaches, making it a key focal point in India’s evolving political landscape.