Nitish swings, Rahul sinks, Tejaswi thinks — Bihar blinks

Bihar—once the land of monasteries and now the crucible of caste arithmetic and coalition chaos—is gearing up like a chessboard for the high-stakes 2025 Assembly elections. Every district, every demographic, and every caste bloc are under scrutiny as parties strategise for what is shaping up to be a crucial political showdown.

These elections are pivotal not just for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress but also for the crumbling remnants of the so-called INDIA alliance. The latter, plagued by cracks and competing egos, has already begun showing signs of collapse. While AAP has severed ties, left parties stated that Rahul (Gandhi) was still immature and cannot hold the bloc together. Bihar will not just decide the fate of alliances—it will test the relevance of legacies.

At the heart of this election stands Nitish Kumar, the longest-serving Chief Minister of Bihar and the chief of Janata Dal (United). While JD(U)’s popularity has waned, the “Nitish brand” still resonates—especially among the Kurmi community and certain EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) segments. But his age, health, and repeated political somersaults have become talking points for both the media and the opposition. Questions about his succession plan and staying in power are more relevant than ever.

Meanwhile, the BJP is aggressively trying to reclaim lost ground. Though it lacks a charismatic chief ministerial face, the party is banking on its core Hindutva base, support from upper castes (notably Bhumihars and Rajputs), outreach to Pasmanda Muslims, and the patriotic afterglow of Operation Sindhoor. The operation—India’s swift and precise airstrike retaliation—continues to be a talking point in their campaign. Yet, without a mass-appeal CM face, BJP’s road to Patna remains riddled with uncertainty.

On the other side, Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD sees an opportunity. Buoyed by the youth and the marginalised, Tejashwi has sharpened the party’s focus on job creation and social justice. The party hopes to convert the Muslim-Yadav vote bank into a winning formula. But the challenge remains—how far can it stretch its appeal beyond that loyal core? Without significant inroads into Dalit and non-Yadav OBC segments, RJD risks capping its growth.

Let’s not forget the battlegrounds.

Mithila—The BJP-JD(U) stronghold:

The culturally rich Mithilanchal region, anchored by Maithili Brahmins and Bhumihars, is a traditional BJP-JD(U) bastion. Despite chronic issues like floods, unemployment, and out-migration, it holds over 100 assembly seats—making it one of the most electorally decisive zones.

Mahagathbandhan’s seat arithmetic:

In the 2020 elections, RJD won 75 of the 243 Assembly seats, contesting 144. The Congress fared poorly and won only 19 of the 70 it contested. Ironically, CPI(ML) emerged with the best strike rate, bagging 12 of 19. Whether they can retain this momentum remains to be seen.

Now, as seat-sharing negotiations begin again, the fault lines are visible. The Congress wants to replicate its 2020 tally by contesting 70 seats, but the RJD is reportedly unwilling to offer more than 50-55. Meanwhile, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is demanding 12 seats in return for its 2024 favour to RJD in Jharkhand—a political barter that exposes the transactional nature of these “alliances.”

The fringe players and X-factors:

The fray is further crowded by players like Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj, AIMIM, CPI(ML), and AAP. Jan Suraaj, while creating buzz, is unlikely to win more than 10 seats. AIMIM and AAP, contesting independently, may not win big but could dent vote shares across blocs and scramble existing equations.

The unique aspect of Bihar politics remains its deeply regional and caste-driven nature. Here, personalities are secondary. Caste is king. Alliances may crack, leaders may change, but social coalitions remain decisive.

Congress: Confused and combative:

Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, seems stuck in a rhetorical loop. His record keeps skipping—be it his obsession with “election Chori” in Maharashtra or now in Bihar, where he alleges manipulation under the guise of the Election Commission’s voter list revision. About 61 lakh voters were flagged, and instead of engaging constructively, Rahul and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav cry foul, claiming disenfranchisement of the poor. He is even threatening the EC but fails to produce the proof. Its high time he ends this drama.

Then there’s his bizarre take on Operation Sindhoor. Rahul’s line that the operation can’t be called a success because it is “still ongoing” is as absurd as it is desperate. He conveniently forgets that India flattened terror launchpads in 21 minutes, rendered enemy airbases non-functional, and exposed the failure of Pakistan’s Shaheen-III missile—while India’s Agni missiles struck targets with surgical precision. Rahul’s credibility took another hit when he echoed Donald Trump’s delusional claim—repeated over 25 times—that he “brokered peace” between India and Pakistan. Trump, lest we forget, also promoted an AI-generated video falsely showing Barack Obama being arrested. That’s the kind of leader Rahul Gandhi chooses to believe.

In Parliament, the Congress now seems to be searching for a bahana (excuse) to explain its looming electoral defeat. From protesting Operation Sindhoor to creating noise over Vice- President Jagdeep Dhankhar’s resignation—amid rumours that he drifted towards the Congress after the no-confidence motion and which allegedly prompted the government to demand his resignation or threaten dismissal—the party’s actions reek of confusion. Meanwhile, it appears to have forgotten a key political reality: in Bihar, it remains a junior partner with steadily declining influence, especially among upper castes, Muslims, and Dalits in districts like Kishanganj, Supaul, and Katihar.

In the volatile Kosi and Anga regions—especially Saharsa, Madhepura, and Bhagalpur—unpredictable caste dynamics could favour the RJD. These zones are traditionally swing regions and will be closely watched.

This election is not just about governance. It’s about reclaiming lost relevance, stitching (or severing) alliances and redefining Bihar’s future. The battle will be fought not merely in rallies or manifestos but across caste corridors, flood-prone towns, backward blocks, and shifting political sands.

What remains constant is Bihar’s ability to surprise, to resist predictability, and to defy national narratives.

And that, perhaps, is its truest political character.

(The author is former Chief Editor of The Hans India)