India is Not Yet the Fourth-Largest or a $4-Trillion Economy; NITI Aayog CEO’s IMF Claim Misleading

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam sparked excitement recently by claiming that India is already the world’s fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data during a press briefing on May 24, 2025. Speaking after the NITI Aayog’s 10th governing council meeting themed ‘Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat’, he expressed confidence that India would become the third-largest economy within 2.5 to 3 years, with only the US, China, and Germany ahead.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several prominent personalities, including Amitabh Bachchan and Anand Mahindra, echoed these claims, sharing graphics attributed to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook report that appeared to show India overtaking Japan to become the fourth-largest economy.

Fact Check: What Does the IMF Data Actually Say?

A detailed examination of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on April 22, 2025, reveals no such official ranking stating India is the fourth-largest economy or that it has surpassed Japan. The 190-page report does not include a ranking chart listing countries by GDP size as circulated on social media.

The IMF database provides GDP figures at current prices in US dollars, including estimates for future years. According to this data:

India’s GDP for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) was $3.91 trillion.

India is projected to reach $4.187 trillion by the end of FY26 (April 2025 - March 2026).

Japan’s GDP in the calendar year 2024 was $4.03 trillion.

Japan’s GDP is estimated to be $4.186 trillion at the end of 2025.

This indicates that India has not yet overtaken Japan, although projections suggest it could do so by the end of FY26. Currently, India ranks fifth in GDP size, behind the United States, China, Germany, and Japan.

Clarifications from Experts

Other experts associated with NITI Aayog, such as Arvind Virmani, have stressed that India becoming the fourth-largest economy is a forecast for the end of 2025, not a current fact. Virmani noted the importance of waiting for full-year GDP data before making definitive claims.

The IMF itself compiles data based on government statistics and provides projections; it does not independently collect raw economic data.

Why GDP Ranking Isn’t the Full Picture

Even if India surpasses Japan in GDP terms, economists caution against using this metric alone to gauge development or progress. GDP figures do not reflect per capita income, income inequality, or employment levels—key factors in assessing overall economic wellbeing.

Conclusion

While India’s economic growth is strong and the country is on track to climb the global GDP rankings, the claim by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam that India is already the fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy is premature and misleading when citing IMF data. India remains the fifth-largest economy as per the latest official figures, with projections indicating it may become fourth by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year.