NDA Poised For Major Bihar Triumph, Surpassing Exit Polls And Shah’s Seat Projection

Defying most exit poll assessments and outperforming even Amit Shah’s confident forecast, the BJP–JDU-led National Democratic Alliance delivered an unexpectedly strong performance as early trends from the Election Commission of India indicated a commanding lead in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections. Within hours of counting, the NDA was ahead on well over 180 seats—far above both exit poll predictions and Shah’s own estimate of 160 seats.

Home minister Amit Shah had previously predicted during a televised interview that the NDA would comfortably secure more than 160 seats in the 243-member assembly, emphasizing that Nitish Kumar remained firmly positioned as chief minister alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the national level. While these were only preliminary trends, they showcased a clear surge in the NDA’s favour.

By around 12:20 am, ECI data showed the alliance crossing the 180-seat mark, while the Mahagathbandhan—led primarily by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD and the Congress—struggled to reach even 60 seats. Although the numbers were subject to change as counting continued, the early momentum strongly favoured the ruling grouping.

Most exit polls released earlier had projected an NDA advantage ranging from 130 to 172 seats, with only one agency, Poll Diary, predicting a possible tally as high as 209 seats. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan seemed headed for a significant setback, trailing far below the upper estimates of around 118 seats suggested by pollsters.