Apple Set to Outpace Samsung in 2025 on Back of Soaring iPhone 17 Demand
In what could be one of the most defining shifts in the global smartphone landscape, Apple is poised to outpace Samsung in overall shipments for the first time in 14 years. A fresh analysis from Counterpoint Research suggests that 2025 will mark a historic moment for the tech giant, fuelled largely by the extraordinary reception of the iPhone 17 series.
According to the research firm, Apple is expected to ship nearly 243 million iPhones in 2025, narrowly surpassing Samsung’s 235 million units. This surge would give Apple a 19.4% global market share, marginally ahead of Samsung’s 18.7%. While shipment numbers don’t always equate directly to consumer sales, they remain a critical metric of market confidence—and for Apple, that confidence is hitting new highs.
iPhone 17 Drives Record Momentum
A major part of Apple’s accelerated growth this year comes from the iPhone 17 lineup, which launched to one of the strongest starts in the company’s recent history. Counterpoint noted that the premium iPhone 17 and the refreshed iPhone Air witnessed a remarkable sales spike across Apple’s biggest markets. In the United States, sales rose 12% within the first month compared to the iPhone 16 series. Meanwhile, in China—where Apple has long navigated stiff competition from local rivals—sales surged 18% in the same period.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”
Millions of users who bought devices during the pandemic years are finally ready for an upgrade, and Apple appears to be the biggest beneficiary of this wave.
Samsung Faces Intensifying Pressure
While Samsung remains a dominant player, the road ahead may be challenging. The report highlights that the company is battling mounting competition from rapidly advancing Chinese brands, especially in mid-range and entry-level categories—segments critical to Samsung’s volume leadership. This competitive pressure could constrain its ability to immediately reclaim the top spot.
Apple’s Lead May Last Years
Counterpoint Research believes Apple’s rise is not a short-lived spike but the beginning of a sustained lead that could last until at least 2029. A combination of ecosystem loyalty, product diversification, and an expanding second-hand market are expected to support continued growth.
The study notes that 358 million pre-owned iPhones are estimated to have exchanged hands between 2023 and mid-2025. Many users entering the Apple ecosystem through second-hand devices tend to upgrade to new models later, creating a long-term demand cycle. “These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Counterpoint added.
The broader geopolitical and economic landscape has also played in Apple’s favour. A recent trade truce between the US and China eased tariff pressures and stabilised the company’s supply chain. At the same time, a weaker US dollar and improving global consumer sentiment have helped boost smartphone demand, particularly in emerging economies.
“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.
Looking ahead, Apple is expected to broaden its portfolio further. Counterpoint predicts the launch of a more budget-friendly iPhone 17e in 2026, along with Apple’s first foldable iPhone. A major redesign and enhanced Siri capabilities planned for 2027 could strengthen Apple’s grip even more.
By expanding across pricing tiers—from entry-level models to elite Pro editions—Apple aims to attract aspirational buyers as well as longstanding loyalists. Combined with the enduring pull of the iOS ecosystem, this strategy could keep Apple at the top of the smartphone hierarchy well into the next decade.