Rupee likely to test 94.50 levels in near term: Report

New Delhi: Indian currency could test the Rs 94.50 level per dollar in the short term even as foreign exchange reserves remain adequate, but long‑term structural measures by the government are indispensable to revive capital inflows, a report said on Monday.

The report from SBI Research said balance‑of‑payments surplus looks thinner at around $55–$60 billion in FY27 and that India’s foreign exchange reserves even under the most stressed scenarios are more than adequate to meet any contingencies.

To support the currency, the report outlined a mix of monetary and regulatory steps the Reserve Bank of India has taken and additional fiscal and tax measures the government should consider to anchor investor confidence.

Hence withdrawal of Rupee Liquidity as currently being envisaged will reduce supply of rupee and hence enhanced corridor on the upper side by increasing MSF rate will result in higher price of Rupee. With these measures, value of Rupee can be protected in the short term, the report noted.

The RBI has opened a direct dollar‑supply window for three state‑run oil marketing companies, shifting roughly $10–$12 billion per month away from the open spot market. Daily cash reserve ratio maintenance has been raised to 99 per cent and Rs 25,000 crore open market operation sales was announced.

The RBI also introduced steps to avoid misuse of foreign exchange hedging facilities by tightening documentation.

"Authorised Dealers will be required to obtain and retain an undertaking from users entering into foreign exchange derivative contracts involving INR to hedge contracted exposures, confirming that the same underlying exposure has not been hedged with any other Authorised Dealer," RBI said.

To ensure orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market, RBI imposed restrictions on rebooking of cancelled foreign exchange derivative contracts.

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