Political Prospects in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh: Post Bifurcation

No political boundary has been permanent in the world. This is true in case of India too. From time to time, new states are formed and state boundaries are redrawn for various political aspirations and expediency. Even the political boundary of India itself has undergone tremendous changes since the times we can ever remember. Indian constitution under article 3, part I, provides the provision for the creation of new states within India. I do not claim that states can be formed at will. There are legal and political routes that have to be passed. The latest entrant to the club of newly created states is Telangana.

The bifurcation of the Andhra Pradesh is unique in one way because it was the first state to be formed based on the linguistic basis in 1953, merged with Telangana region in 1956, and its bifurcation goes against the very foundation of its own formation. After this political arrangement, like every other, the political topography and prospects of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh wear a different look.

In the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh, two major parties—Congress and TDP—have been in the helm of power alternatively. Just after the birth of Telangana, it is Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which secures power at the state. In the residual Andhra Pradesh, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has come back to power after long years. The reasons for these two parties clutching the powers are varied. While the sentimental factor attached to the movement for Telangana state largely works for TRS, the groundswell for the need to have an experienced leadership who can build Andhra Pradesh almost from the scratch favours TDP.

In Telangana, the struggle for power was more or less one-sided with no potential challenger to TRS; but in Andhra Pradesh, it was basically between TDP and YSR Congress Party. Congress was completely wiped out in both states in the last assembly and general elections. There is every optimal prospect for congress party coming back as a strong rival to TRS in Telangana. Even BJP’s winning respectable seats in Telangana cannot be entirely ruled out given its socio-economic and community compositions in future. Congress’s probability to make an immediate inroad in Andhra Pradesh looks remote now.

New Political Dynasties

Dynastic politics is one of the discernible facets of Indian politics. Whether this political culture is democratic or undemocratic has been a subject of long drawn debate. The tradition of having dynasty in politics has already entrenched in these two states. First let’s take the case of TRS under K. Chandrashekar Rao in Telanagana. TRS clearly reflects a party of KCR family in all respects. Not only the party itself, but the TRS run government at present is predominantly represented by the members of its leader. Even the MIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen), though it has a limited reach beyond Hyderabad, remains to be dynastic by nature. It is no difference when it comes to the state of Andhra Pradesh.

Starting from the late NTR to N. Chandrababu Naidu to the extended family, it is the family which is calling the shots in TDP right from its inception. Same can be explained about YSR Congress, because it is essentially started and controlled by Y. S. Jaganamohan Reddy, son of the late chief of minister of united Andhra Pradesh Y. S. Rajashekhara Reddy. There are also other families who are strongly affiliated with the Congress party.

As to the question of dynastic politics being democratic or not, it is democratic in principle. It is the people who choose their representatives in the democratic political set up. As long as electorates give their mandate for candidates belonging to any political families, the essence of democracy exists. When a son or a daughter becomes heir apparent of a leader, common people see the sense of legitimacy in the inherited line. Even in authoritarian or communist regimes around the world, dynasty politics is rampant. So then in both the states, family politics is going to stay like it is visible in other states. Yes new political families may emerge in due course of time, but this culture is already rooted in Indian political system.

Caste Dimensions in Politics

Needless to say, caste factor is an intrinsic part of politics in India. In the united Andhra Pradesh, the congress party was seen to be largely represented by Reddy caste, whereas it has been Kamma caste who commands the TDP. It is quite observable phenomenon that these two forward castes have been the undisputed ruling castes. The fact is that these upper castes have their established political elite who can engage in active politics full time, but which is not so in other castes. The failure of Chiranjeevi’s adventure to start a political platform for Kapu caste, another major agrarian caste, can be partly decoded from this reason. After the formation of new state, the caste equation in politics is slightly transformed, but not in character. In Telangana, it is the advent of Velama caste as the political ruling caste now.

It is a new caste balance because the Velama caste, though one of the dominant castes in Telangana region, could not be a major player politically in the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh. Given the healthy presence of Reddy caste, the viability of congress party to come back in Telangana is obvious. But in the residual AP, the contention for power is clearly between Reddy caste and Kamma caste. Kamma controlled TDP and Reddy dominated YRS Congress, not necessarily the congress party, are the rival parties today. The prevailing socio-economic fabric reflects the equation of caste and politics. Kammas are economically overwhelming in the coastal Andhra and the Reddys are politically powerful in the Rayalaseema region. In this changing political milieu, where do dalits, lower and other backward castes stand politically? The persistent problem with these lower caste groups is that they do not have a united political voice so far.

They always vacillate their political affiliations across parties. Often there are internal feuds among themselves on various issues. The acrimony between Madiga and Mala—two major schedule castes is one such example. More importantly, lower castes groups or the dalits are relatively tenuous in economic front and thus they have little scope where they can produce what is called ‘political elite’ who can mobilise their organised political interest.

Some Lingering Downsides

The biggest loser in this whole political scenario is the congress party as it could not translate its political demarche into its political dividends in either of the two states. After bifurcation, both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh can no longer enjoy the same bargaining power at centre like the united AP used to before. The former AP state had huge 42 Lok Sabha seats and now both states are with reduced seats in both houses of the parliament. Like other inter-state disputes, both the states are endowed with enough unresolved problems like water sharing, power or funds sharing et al. Even if the simmering problems between the states can be sorted out amicably, any concerted exploitation of the situation, a typical political travesty, by ruling parties to further their political interests in both the states should not surprise us.

By Mayengbam Nandakishwor Singh

The writer is a political and social analyst, based in Hyderabad.