Eclipse of Vajpayee’s old guards

Time to make a difference. Time for change. Time for Modi - that's the BJP’s campaign punch line. It was coined to seek a change in government, the exit of Manmohan Singh and entry of Narendra Modi as the new occupant of 7 Race Course Road.

But with only seven days to go before the first phase of polling, it is clear that the man in focus is asking for a change that means much more for him and his party.

As the BJP’s charge to grab power at the Centre grows in strength, the visible signs of change are not just about a generational shift, or the end of Vajpayee-Advani era and the emergence of the Modi-Rajnath era in the organisational set-up, but are also about an internal churning process within the BJP and the NDA. This indicates that Modi's ascendance to power could mean a policy shift from the NDA's very own Vajpayee government, which all party leaders so fondly recall. It’s not about the different style and persona of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Narendra Modi, but it is also about the key strategists and big four ministers who were with Vajpayee and those who could possibly come with Modi.

The broad policy formulations and the core of governance from the Centre is guided by the five occupants of North and South block -- the Prime Minister, home minister, finance minister, external affairs minister and defence minister. It is they who form political leadership in the government, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), the highest executive body for taking decisions of strategic concerns.

Consider the facts -- former Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister LK Advani is out of the reckoning for a ministerial berth, former defence minister and NDA convenor George Fernandes is physically immobile and out of politics, former finance minister Jaswant Singh was expelled from the BJP on midnight on Saturday and former external affairs minister Yashwant Sinha has withdrawn from electoral politics to promote his son Jayant in his home constituency Hazaribagh and by consequence he has negated the possibility of being a minister in next government.

The key strategic decisions that flew out of Raisina Hills included acceleration of economic reforms and disinvestment of PSUs, writing a new chapter for a strategic tie-up with America and beginning of a peace process in J&K and with Pakistan.

Will Modi have something like a big bang Pokhran explosion? Nobody has an answer but as a BJP leader said, one thing is sure that economic stability and development will form core of governance agenda.

The none of Vajpayee's Big Four will be a minister now is a given, but the turn of events in the past fortnight indicates that none will even be in a position to influence future decision making processes.

Party patriarch and mentor LK Advani’s position is rather curious. A lately developed coldness between him and Modi, him being seen as someone who was still not prepared to accept Modi as the unquestioned leader of the party, either in Goa in July 2013 or in September when Modi was declared PM nominee, or at later stages including the recent crisis situation that the party faced over his nomination from Gandhinagar, has diluted Advani’s capacity to influence key decisions in the months to come.

It was expected of Advani to play role of a mentor in government formation, working for an “NDA plus”, stitching ties with allies, playing on his seniority and moral authority to resolve conflict situations in the BJP and in the coalition, but given the above-mentioned developments, senior leaders are now doubtful how much influence he would really wield if the party really comes close to forming a government after the May 16 results.

The other big question is whether there is a “Plan B”, if the BJP does not get the numbers to make Modi the Prime Minister. “There is no Plan A, Plan B or Plan C, there is only one Plan and it is Plan M,” said an RSS insider.

Though there is some skepticism among sections of BJP leaders, the broad opinion is that the BJP, by conspiring to make someone else the PM nominee in a number crunching situation, cannot afford to be seen as cheating the people.

The mandate, if it is for the NDA, will be for Modi and nobody else. Nobody will believe the party if it makes an about turn for an overdrive to power. A party leader pointed out the change in Rajnath Singh’s tweet – last week he first tweeted that it's time for change, time for a BJP government; only to change it a few minutes later to 'time for change, time for a Modi government'.