Monsoon in Kerala on June 3 will be scanty

Pune: The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)'s first tentative real-time monsoon forecast for this year predicts deferred monsoon expansion over the nation. According to the meteorological scientists the first spell of rainfall will be insufficient and scantier than usual. They said it was due to the absence of a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea, which could dawdle off the monsoon progress.

In general, the monsoon touches Kerala by June 1, every year. Thereafter it goes northwards up to central India by June 12. This year, the southwest monsoon will reach Kerala by June 3. The scientists view that the first spell of rain falls may not be sufficient.

The forecast predicts that a low pressure system would form over Bay of Bengal around May 25 and move northwards. The strengthening of the monsoon current along the south Kerala coast seems to be in response to the low pressure system building up over the Bay of Bengal.

The presence of a low-level anticyclone over central India and the absence of easterlies over northern parts of India may also seriously hamper the northward progression of monsoon, the weather forecast added. The reinforcement and progression of monsoon may be hampered till June 15, thus causing late monsoon development over the country. The mid-latitude systems deeply piercing into northern parts of India may also have comportment on monsoon spread over the country.

As a result of the advent of super computers at IITM, the institute has undertaken to develop, upgrade and modernize the long sought-after ERPS this initiative. Due to this advent, IITM came up with a tentative immediate forecast of the active-break spells of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for up to 20 days in advance, through an ensemble prediction system (EPS) framework. This EPS uses a home grown group generation system suitable for the 'Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2)' and a novel technique to calibrate and interpret the model generated forecast suitable for large scale rainfall forecast over the Entire nation.