J&K waits for stable govt

In the rest of the country, the contestraised questions such as would it change theway the state has been governed? Would it lead tothe state’s integration or further alienation?The “Kashmir issue” has impacted India’s foreign policy, especially with neighbours and even more especially, Pakistan that disputes its accession. Four wars have been fought on and in J&K. Six decades plushence, it remains a bone of contention betweenIndia and Pakistan.

The world community views itas a dispute, and plays along the convenient side.Hence, the reaction abroad to the BJP’s ‘Mission44’ denoting simple majority in the 87 member assembly was mixed, somewhat camouflaged.

That India has conducted free and fair elections, the last three of them, at least, was noted. But there were apprehensions among the Islamic nations, Pakistanin particular.

Most Pakistani analysts doubted fairnesof the polls, even before they were held, undera “Hindunationalist” political dispensation in NewDelhi.Conspiracy theories were trotted out about NewDelhi trying to ‘dilute’ the state’s Muslim majority,about rigging with the help of the security forces and much else.

Incidentally, these received fillip fromsome of the Indian writers who contribute to Pakistanimedia in other Islamic nations.Eventually, the separatists’ boycott call wassoundly rejected by the people who turned out in record numbers to vote despite a chilly winter.

Therewas no “poll-violence.” It was unleashed only by separatistsfrustrated by large voters’ turnout, 70 percent-plus, aiming to divert the focus from polls to“Indian atrocities.” It failed. The outcome of thismuch-watched election, however, has been an anticlimax.

A deeply fractured mandate gives nobody amajority, or even an elbow-room to negotiate formation of a new government. Many reasons have been cited.

A question that most people have shied from asking about this "drawn match" is: why did BJP stop short of its "Mission 44"?Few, save die-hard ‘Hintutva’ supporters, expectedthe BJP to win a majority in a highly polarised andfeverishly contested election. Indeed, winning 25seats is an unprecedented feat for a 'Hindu' party ithe country's only Muslim majority state.

Althoughconfined to the Jammu region, the BJP scored thehighest voting percentage among all contestants inthe state with a clear stake in government formation.But it could not form that government. Governor'srule has been imposed. The party and its mentorsmay choose to look at the glass half-full as they ponderover the lost opportunity after coming so closeto it.

An uncertain political future has ensued.But they could still consider a situation whereinthey could have pushed close to the coveted majority.Putting it differently, they could have been the Number One party, leaving behind the PDP that emerged the leader, but not the outright winner, scoring only 28 seats. There was polarisation along religious lines with the PDP winning most of its seats in the Valley, and the BJP failing to get a single seat outside of the Jammu region. Ladakh, incidentally, favoured the Congress.

The "drawn match" impaired the ability in the post-poll situation – not for want of trying – to cobble up a power sharing arrangement among the two top scorers.

After a high-profile campaign under national chief Amit Shah and star campaigner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP fell short of the numbers because along with that campaign occurred a trail of controversies. Beginning with Union Minister sadhvi Niranan Jyoti, several BJP leaders engaged in minority-baiting. That was followed by conversions of Muslims and Christians, the "ghar wapasi",in Agra, Aligarh and Kerala.

As elsewhere in the country, these controversies fuelled fears among the Muslims in J&K and sharply polarised an already tenuous situation on the ground. It virtually became a BJP-versus the rest contest.

A dispassionate conclusion one reaches is that this cost the BJP half-a-dozen seats, though not more. It prevented its rise in the Valley and in Ladakh. This could also include parts of Jammu, which remains the BJP’s mainstay. Commenting on this line does not necessarily mean that one is endorsing the BJP’s 'mission' or its performance. But winning 30 plus seats would have certainly placed it in the vanguard.

There are no further reports of conversions. But the controversy persists despite reported directions from the top in the Sangh Parivar to call off the campaign.

This prevented the PDP to arrive at any understanding with the BJP. Sensing the situation, the National Conference and the Congress, who survived total route, played safe and aloof, adopting a "pehle aap" line.

Contrary to what PDP would have the people of J&K believe, the sticking points in its negotiations with the BJP are not Article 370 or the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. Such serious issues cannot possibly be left to, or resolved by, poll-time assurances as part of bargaining for power. At stake for the PDP is the chief ministership for the entire six-year term.

Mufti Mohammed Sayeed had tasted this when he aligned with the Congress and had to make way for Ghulam Nabi Azad. For the BJP, similarly, getting a shot at the CM’s job, even if for half a term, is crucial.

While ideological chasms cannot be wished away, it is necessary to work out an inclusive and pragmatic middle.

Both PDP and BJP need to think out of the box, as early as possible, to reach an understanding and form a government. For J&K to remain without a representative government for too long is invitation to greater militancy and separatism.

The Governor's rule has helped nobody. Past experience shows that a popular rule, howsoever lax and inefficient, is the answer to the state that is geopolitically most fragile.

For that, Modi would have to rein in the Sangh zealots. He can take justifiable pride about the peaceful election and the high voting percentage, but the democratic process cannot be complete until the state gets an elected government committed to its growth and development. All the stake-holders need to scale down personal ambitions, and be ready to accomodate political rivals.J&K Deserves better.