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BJP cries foul on opinion polls
The war of words get hotter and hotter between the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi and AAP’s former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal as the election bugle gets shriller and shriller in the national capital even as the pre-poll opinion surveys predict a lead for Kejriwal’s AAP.
Saffron party’s nervousness indicates AAP’s win: Experts
New Delhi: The war of words get hotter and hotter between the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi and AAP’s former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal as the election bugle gets shriller and shriller in the national capital even as the pre-poll opinion surveys predict a lead for Kejriwal’s AAP.
Out of the five opinion polls conducted for the February 7 Delhi Assembly elections, three predict a clear lead for the AAP over its nearest rival BJP but one gives a dead-heat and The Week-IMRB poll gives 36 out of 70 seats for the BJP. Congress’ prospects in the elections are dim as none of the polls give a double digit to it.
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Psephologist and BJP spokesperson GVL Narasimha Rao dismissed the pre-election polls as unreliable by pointing out that AAP was underestimated in 2013 but now it is overestimated. He said, “In 2013, poll of polls gave AAP 14 seats. They got 28. Now, poll of polls gives them 38 seats. They will get 19.”
Sanjay Kumar, Director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and an expert in Survey Research, told The Hans India that the opinion polls on Delhi elections are indicating a trend that the support base of the AAP is increasing while the BJP’s is either static or decreasing. He said, “It is a close contest but the AAP is having an edge as reflected in the opinion polls conducted in the last two weeks.”
However, he highlighted that these surveys are not informing the readers about the sample size and social profiles of the people whom they have surveyed. Interestingly, during the 2014 General Elections none of the media houses and their opinion poll agencies could predict that the BJP will be winning 281 Lok Sabha seats.
Sanjay Kumar said that usually political parties go to the pollsters or agencies with a predetermined result and ask them to conduct a survey for which the agency can say yes or no. But he doubts whether any political party approached an agency this time for Delhi Assembly elections. CNN-IBN is restricting itself to conduct exit polls.
