Acid test for NDA

Assembly polls in 5 states in April-May

New Delhi: The announcement of polls to five state Assemblies here on Friday set tone and tenor for the nation facing an internal turmoil of sorts with free speech and Hindutva ideology being at loggerheads. These elections to be held to West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry and also the next year's elections to Uttar Pradesh are crucial not only for the BJP but also to the Opposition struggling to match the Hindutva dominance that has emerged of late in the country.

The elections will be held between April 4 and May 16, spread over 43 days. It will be a single-day polling in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry on May 16 while it will be in six phases in West Bengal and two in Assam. Counting of votes in all the states will be held on May 19, Chief Election Commissioner Nasim Zaidi said. Like in 2011, West Bengal will have polls spread over six phases. The first phase will have two polling dates--April 4 and April 11.

The other phases will be held on April 17, 21, 25, 30 and May 5. Assam will go to polls in two phases on April 4 and 11. Bihar was said to be a turning point in halting the Modi-Amit Shah juggernaut. But, more crucial are the elections announced on Friday by the Election Commission of India because the results of these have the potential to make or mar the government and its agenda.

It is not just about the pending crucial bills in Parliament or the economic reforms that the political parties have to weigh and consider either to support or oppose, but now is the time for people too to judge this government as to the direction that the country should take. It was never in power in any of these due to the political dynamics inherent to them.

Be it the one-sided verdict in Tamil Nadu or Kerala, or the fractured verdict of Assam sometimes or for that matter West Bengal which was a Marxists' bastion earlier and now a fortress of the TMC, the BJP has few options in all these States. If any, it can only hope to improve its performance by a few states, may be a dozen or more in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Beyond this, it has no scope of performing a miracle in Kerala, it is said.

Analysts feel that Assam could be offering a fair chance to the BJP what with its alliance with the fragmented AGP and other tribal parties. It hopes to work on the Hindu sentiments further here to alienate the Congress that is in power for the last three terms with the help of the support of minorities mostly. But, the fact is that the Muslim minorities here have other options like their own groupings.

The BJP is hopeful that as it has already won seven Parliament seats in the last Lok Sabha improving its percentage and tally vastly, it stands the best chance of coming to power here. However, the impact of the Hindutva forces has the potential to impact its chances in Assam where if the minorities rally behind Congress unitedly, it could tilt the balance.

As far as West Bengal, even in a triangular contest of the Congress-Left combine, the TMC and the BJP, the chances of the last gaining are frugal. The BJP is planning a social engineering in Tamil Nadu and Kerala that is yet to be tested.