Allies turn expendables

When we said two minus two is zero earlier, we were wrong. Two minus two has become five in Maharashtra. Both major alliances that dominated politics in last two decades have split to fight each other in the forthcoming elections. No more shadow-boxing by Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), now the fifth player. The traditional spoiler must now stand and be counted. Maharashtra is poised to witness a Mahabharat-like war with likely serious fall-out at the national level.

After weeks of acrimony, it would seem by hindsight, the prime mover has been Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Comfortably ensconced at the national level, it is eager to extend its sway in the states while the going is good. For that, it must shed smaller allies that have postured and flexed muscles – even blackmailed it in the past. It sees them as expendable. Hence, it has broken alliance with Shiv Sena after 25 years. The Sena’s clout and mass appeal are widely perceived as having diminished after the death of its supremo Balasaheb Thackeray. It must now fight for survival.

This is also the case with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that parted ways with the Congress when the logic demanded that they bond together, if only to benefit from the BJP-Sena divide. The Congress, too, could suffer another blow after the Lok Sabha polls. But then, who can make predictions in a five-cornered fight? By forcing the splits (and yet mutually calling names), the BJP has worked for an electoral free-for-all in which it hopes to ride on the “Modi wave.” The PM enjoys a credible image among Maharashtra’s powerful middle class. Ignoring traditional antipathy, Marathis voted for a Gujarati, with or without Sena’s nudging. This reverses a trend of over half-a-century. Now, Sena, true to its form, is playing the Marathi card by dubbing BJP leaders as ‘enemies of Maharashtra.’

The two-way split has set the stage for votes division, too. The Shiv Sena and the BJP will separately try to retain a vote-bank whose support they enjoyed in alliance, as will the Congress and the NCP. The two Senas have got into the fight. Whether the competing cousins, Sena’s Uddhav and MNS chief Raj, will make their electoral debut, remains to be seen. If nothing else, that should heighten the campaign hype.

Most likely, the PM will campaign in this crucial election. His not doing so in the three assembly by-election rounds had hit BJP. He will seek to generate an appeal that transcends Maharashtra’s strong caste and community barriers. In more ways than one, Maharashtra and Haryana would determine the efficacy of the much-touted Modi appeal.

The BJP’s parting ways with Sena, its oldest NDA ally that shares the ‘Hindutva’ ethos like no other party does, could not have been easy. It is a message for the Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu and regional parties elsewhere. They can align with BJP on in its terms, not theirs.