Delhi polls: BJP faces formidable challenge

With last year’s Lok Sabha polls being a major exception, elections in India, particularly in States that witness multi-cornered contests, are notable for last-minute surge or setback among the contenders. The Delhi elections taking place on Saturday promise to spring surprises. It is difficult to ignore as many as five pre-poll surveys that point to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) doing better than most – especially the middle class and the media have been expecting it. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ruling at the Centre and on a winning spree in the last eight months could come second.

These surveys conducted by media houses and specialist agencies (with a fair record of success) give AAP between 29 and 46 seats and BJP, between 19 and 36 seats. That yields AAP an average of 36 – simple majority in a House of 70. At 30, BJP could get lower than its score in December 2013, when it was number one, but four short of a majority. An off-colour straggler, the Congress has been written off at between three to seven seats.

While not rushing to conclusions when voting is yet to take place, it must be conceded that beyond poll-time promises, claims and records, perceptions matter. For one, prices of fruits and vegetables have doubled this winter.

AAP began as an underdog against the BJP’s triumphalist onslaught, but has gone for the jugular, with nothing to lose. Arvind Kejriwal has repeatedly apologised for having quit as the Chief Minister after just 49 days in office. The polls outcome will show if the middle class that was riled by this has forgiven him and is willing to bet on him again.

Kejriwal has put up a combination of aggressive campaign with a mellowed face. His latest media interview indicates a willing to ‘cooperate’ with the Centre, should he form the government, and using dharna, the mass protest that has been his favourite political weapon, only as the last resort. This is both a promise to Delhites and a response to the oft-repeated criticism. Note the way Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi, in a speech ostensibly written for her, called him dharnebaaz, coining a new expression in Hindi/Hindustani.

AAP is seen as doing well despite an avalanche of ad campaign by the BJP and allegations of money-laundering coming from its erstwhile activists-turned rivals. Doubts about the source of its funds have been defiantly met, ostensibly by its supporters, who gathered Rs 6.6 million on a single day.

Assuming AAP will pip the polls, where does that place Kiran Bedi, the retired policewoman and social activist whom BJP fielded as the chief ministerial candidate as the ultimate political Brahmastra? Delhi BJP stood badly divided with her entry. Her clean, but controversial, image has been boosted during the campaign, where she made some gaffes. Her entry, bolstered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign, was billed as a juggernaut that would crush any opposition. The surveys, whatever their worth, point in a different direction.

By: Mahendra Ved