Some middle-class views on AAP win

Even as Kejriwal and AAP were basking in their electoral glory, I received a telephone call from a young relative in Kolkata, in his early twenties, just getting out of college. He was out celebrating AAP's victory. AAP in West Bengal? I am celebrating BJP's loss, he said, because it is a Hindu nationalist party, anti-poor and (surprise) anti-environment. One domain where BJP's loss has been overwhelming is in the perception battle; an area once considered its forte. Worryingly for BJP its electoral loss was celebrated by the youth in places like Bangalore and Srinagar, albeit for varied reasons.

Staying the on issue, another relative, an octogenarian and a core BJP supporter (a Jan Sanghi - BJP's political backbone) asked me a few weeks back referring to the stream of extremely discomforting comments from the Hindutva fringe elements as to what the BJP was up to and why didn't Modi do something about it. I suggested probably they were catering to the demands of certain section of the BJP vote bank. Point here is that by now BJP strategists must (and should) have realised that "minority appeasement" will still get them Hindu votes but the reverse is not necessarily true.

Another lesson BJP and other political parties can take from the AAP victory is to relook at how to connect and communicate with voters in more focussed and fruitful manner.

The BJP will be definitely running through some worry-beads on their electoral performance, but the biggest tremors of the AAP victory is likely to have been felt in the Lutyens bungalow zone at the BSP headquarters. It is a party that is fast losing the trust and goodwill of its support base and careening towards political and possibly social irrelevance. The Congress and the Left will take comfort from the fact that they still have states governed by them.

The AAP manifesto has a string of promises some which AAP will soon fulfil. However, quite a few are likely to hit one or more of these three barriers. First will be those which require the union government or parliamentary approval. The second is to cover the deficit in finance or revenue for welfare subsidies. Third, putting more buses on the road, adding beds to hospitals will not improve service delivery, but motivated people – bus drivers, nurses, doctors – can. It will take more than the Jan Lokpal and the "setting and stinging" combo to yield a corruption-free Delhi. AAP's main governance challenge will be to change attitudes and work ethos.

Policing will be another challenge for the incoming Delhi government in addition to cat-fights with the union government over the superintendence of the Delhi Police.

AAP's victory, as was the case in December 2013, is good for the political environment, causing it evolve and improve. However the AAP model with its populist leanings needs to be put to the governance test. If it in its second coming AAP fails to deliver in Delhi, it must be junked and, if succeeds, the model justifies country-wide replication.

By: Monish Gulati