Warning signals for India

NEPAL CATASTROPHE

The recent earthquake in Nepal, which had a strong effect in Bihar and UP, calls for an analysis of our country’s preparedness to deal with such natural disasters. Though the destruction and nowhere near Nepal’s, where it was calculated to be 7.9 in the Richter scale and causing death to over 7,500 people, on modest estimates, nonetheless it needs to be pointed out that proper planning to withstand quakes of a little high intensity are missing in the country.

Experts have long indicated that the entire Himalayan region is earthquake prone as the Indian tectonic plate, which is part of the Indo-Eurasian plate, is moving northward at around 5 cm. a year. Geophysicists are of the opinion that earthquakes typically cause a sudden subterranean shift in the positioning of the continental plates, the relevant one in this instance being the Indian plate.

The National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) and the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) have warned that quakes may hit the sub-continent’s four seismic zones more regularly due to the movement of the Indian plate towards the Eurasian plate. It may be mentioned here that Zone-V, the very severe intensity area, consists of parts of J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Raan of Kutch, parts of north Bihar, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

It stated that 27 States and Union Territories are disaster-prone from phenomena like quakes, floods, river erosion, landslides and avalanches. Almost 59 per cent of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of moderate to high intensity. Referring to high risk States, the NIDM warned that “construction in these cities are predominantly not earthquake resistant, regulatory mechanisms are weak, thus any quake striking one of these cities would turn into a major disaster”.

The NIDM warning definitely calls for serious concern as the preparedness of the country to deal with any major disaster in quite poor. Records suggest that four major earthquakes have occurred in the Himalayan region – Shillong in 1897 (8.7 in the Richter scale), Kangra in 1905 (8), Bihar-Nepal in 1934 (8.3) and Assam-Tibet in 1950 (8.6).

In the Himalayan region, it is not only earthquakes that are a matter of concern. The extremely sensitive eco-system of a young mountain requires careful nurturing and not mindless exploitation of its natural resources. An example in this context was the Uttarakhand deluge in June 2013 where thousands expired due to various factors, including unrestricted tourism for which unsustainable infrastructural facilities were built.

There is a need to reform civil engineering education at the under graduate level as around 60 per cent of the country falls in regions that are liable to seismic damage. According to an expert of the Geological Survey of India (GSI), retrofitting is the logical option and, as such, this has to be included in the syllabus to make buildings safe.

Apart from this, city planning needs to thorough undergo a change, specially in the risk prone areas. This could be done at an all-India level with experts who could also explore collaboration with Japan, which has lot of technical acumen in this field.

As the prediction of the location and the magnitude of an earthquake are yet to become a practical reality, it is high time that something more than statistical inference is drawn about the occurrence of quakes. The examples of devastation in many countries like China and Japan bear testimony to the fact that unless a scientific prediction methodology is evolved, the future may witness worse consequences.

By Dhurjati Mukherjee