Changing geopolitics in the Gulf

The Saudi-led military operation in Yemen has not been able to bring back Hadi to power nor has it been able to completely drive the Houthis out of the capital. The solution to Yemen’s problem lies in dialogue and negotiation between the parties concerned

The Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen ‘Operation Decisive Storm’ has further affected the fragile geopolitics of the Gulf region. It was intended to bring stability to Yemen by reinstating the government led by President Abdu Mansour Hadi and stopping the advance of the Houthis.

Saudi Arabia left no stone unturned to make the operation a success. Along with its GCC neighbours (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain), other Arab countries such as Jordan, Morocco, Egypt and Senegal were also drawn in to participate in the military operation. The United States has provided intelligence and logistical support for the operation.

By undertaking such a huge military operation in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has shown that it will not hesitate to use force to ensure security in its neighbourhood. Saudi intervention in Bahrain to suppress the protests in 2011 under the banner of ‘Peninsula Shield Force’ along with the forces from Qatar and UAE was another example of Saudi sensitivity to the instability in its neighbourhood.

Riyadh has also shown that it would not leave any space for Iranian influence, be it in Bahrain or in Yemen. The Houthis (allegedly supported by Iran and trained by Hezbollah) operating freely in Sanaa after forcing president Hadi out of the capital was not acceptable to Riyadh. President Hadi initially moved to Aden and then fled to Riyadh where he is now in exile.

In an Op-Ed article in the New York Times on April 12, 2015, Hadi accused ‘Iran’s hunger for power and its ambition to control the entire region’ as the root cause of chaos in Yemen. While Saudi Arabia supports the status quo in Yemen by supporting the Hadi government, Iran on its part has backed the Houthis.

The GCC member states such as the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have openly supported the ‘Operation Decisive Storm’ thus strengthening the Saudi position and authority. The most remarkable feature has however been the Omani decision not to join the operation. Oman believes that the conflict in Yemen should be resolved through negotiations and dialogue between the parties concerned.

King Salman sought Pakistani help but the Pakistani parliament voted against joining the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. Pakistan is trying to balance its engagements with Saudi Arabia and Iran as it has substantial long term interests with both the countries.

Thus, the Iran-Oman stand on Yemen is a setback to the Saudi diplomacy in the region. Besides, Iraq has also taken the same line as Iran and Oman and has criticised Saudi-led military intervention. The huge Iranian influence over Iraq has also shaped the Iraqi perception towards the crisis in Yemen.

Amidst the growing tension in Yemen, there is call by the countries of the region to form a joint Arab military force to face the security challenges. There are countries such as Syria and Iraq, who are allies of Iran, who are not in favour of establishment of such a joint military force as they believe that it may create further insecurity in the region.

Egypt has shown extreme keenness in its support to Saudi Arabia. Egyptian President Fattah El Sisi owes a lot to the Saudis. Riyadh was behind the overthrow of Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt. The US is under pressure from the GCC countries as they believe that their security will be challenged as a result of a nuclear deal with Iran.

For the GCC, the US-Iran rapprochement comes at a time of growing activities and rising influence of Iran throughout the region. The Saudi-led military operation in Yemen has not been able to bring back Hadi to power nor has it been able to completely drive the Houthis out of the capital. The solution to Yemen’s problem lies in dialogue and negotiation between the parties concerned.

Oman’s desire to remain neutral amidst a crisis of this nature, its open defiance of the Saudi authority in the region, Omani sympathy towards Iran, Iranian moves to come closer to Pakistan, continuing Iraqi refusal to come under Saudi pressure, revival of Saudi-Egyptian ties, the GCC’s pressure on the US regarding security assurances are some of the trends which will shape the course of regional geopolitics in the foreseeable future.

By Prasanta Kumar Pradhan