Churn in global geopolitics

For India, the Iran deal couldn’t have come at a better time. Along with Russia, Iran remains an ally in the region. India would need Iran to counter the Sino-Pak collusion in the region. Iran can join the Afghan peace process, being a stake holder and having significantly contributed to its rebuilding. It can have a role in countering the Islamic State (IS) or Da’esh that is worrying not just the region but the world as a whole

United States President Barack Obama, whatever his failings, will go down in history for ending his country’s long-standing impasse with two nations, Iran and Cuba, both happening simultaneously, thus changing the global discourse for the better.

Obama has braved protests that will persist from powerful vested interests to facilitate pacts with the two sanctions-hit nations, ending miseries of their people as well. That he received help from Cuba’s Raoul Castro and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani, both pragmatic leaders, made the two parallel reconciliation processes, tortuous and difficult tough though they were, end in success.

While his detractors on Cuba are confined to the US, the anger against – and satisfaction and support for – the Iran deal is global. For sure, there is an intense criticism mounted against Obama and Rouhani for having ‘surrendered’ too much for too little. It is not going to end easily and there may still be road blocks. But a reversal seems difficult.

After marathon negotiations, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany agreed to a deal that would curb and monitor Iranian nuclear activities. In return, sanctions get lifted, but gradually and in phases. Iran stands to recover $100 billion of blocked funds, can carry on business with anybody and more importantly, can sell its oil and gas. Its people get much-needed medicines and other essentials of life.

The deal is a major breakthrough in international relations. Looked at from India, it is far more epochal than the US-India civil nuclear deal. Iran negotiations were made particularly difficult by nearly four decades of hostilities and mutual distrust between the US and Iran. If US thought of Iran as part of an ‘Axis of Evil’, Tehran has called the US a ‘Great Satan’.

The old animosity had to be shed and the old narrative had to change. In this, the US had to carry along other world leaders. Both Obama and Rouhani staked considerable political capital on the nuclear negotiations.

A failure would have hurt the Democratic Party’s chances at next year’s presidential polls, while a hardliner like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would have returned to power in Tehran. These dangers remain. But the world is better off with moderation. Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, is swearing that she would ensure that Iran would not make the bomb. This is needed for the American public opinion.

Obama’s outreach to Iran breaks the Arab-Israeli stranglehold over Washington’s approach to West Asia. Indeed, the whole discourse in that region changes radically. The most unlikely people, Saudi Arabia and Israel, are coming closer to counter Iran. Israel’s Netanyahu, who never liked Obama for initiating reconciliation with Iran, is livid.

He hopes to scuttle the deal even now. Tehran has accepted managed access to its nuclear facilities, also a ‘snapback’ clause where sanctions can be re-imposed if there is any violation of the enrichment commitments.

It’s clear that the accord will keep Iran from producing enough nuclear material for a bomb for at least 10 to 15 years in exchange for lifting international sanctions. Iran can now hope to play a constructive role in the region.

For India, the agreement couldn’t have come at a better time. Along with Russia, Iran remains an ally in the region. India would need Iran to counter the Sino-Pak collusion in the region. Iran can join the Afghan peace process, being a stake holder and having significantly contributed to its rebuilding.

It can have a role in countering the Islamic State (IS) or Da’esh that is worrying not just the region but the world as a whole. It can moderate its role in Iraq, and in Yemen that is under attack from Saudi Arabia.

Overall, how Tehran will position itself given the Saudi Arabia-Iran (read Sunni-Shia) relationship remains to be seen. The operative point is that Iran has now been brought back into the regional and global geo-political and diplomatic tent and cannot take extreme measures on any issue.

Sanctions had crippled Iran’s economy that had been hit first by the eight-year Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. It is the world’s fourth largest oil producer and has been extracting its valuable natural resource well below optimum levels.

The lifting of sanctions will see a major investment and modernisation of Iran’s long-neglected hydrocarbon sector. This will be good news for major oil importers like India. India had opposed sanctions throughout and had done business via Dubai, supplying many essentials, thus angering all adversaries of Iran.

It was forced to scale down its oil imports from Iran when the banking facilities were closed under American pressures. All this would hopefully end in the foreseeable future. Iranian oil being on tap should depress global oil prices. This will indirectly help reduce India’s escalating fuel import bill and allow the Indian economy space to grow.

Lifting of sanctions should cause problems for a section of Indian exporters, though. They took advantage of Iran’s compulsions selling goods dearer that the global prices. But that phase has to end and the business strategy would need to be altered. On the other hand, there are significant opportunities for trade and investment and help Iran in its re-building process.

Rouhani has asked India to invest in infrastructure projects worth $8 billion, while according preferential treatment to goods from India. India should respond with understanding, but with alacrity. Iran is the key to India’s access to Afghanistan, blocked by Pakistan’s obduracy and to Central Asia.

Tehran can push the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline. India can step up its investment and help in developing Chabahar port and the railway line that links it to Afghanistan’s western flank and thence to Central Asia.

Expectedly, West Asia is causing reverberations in India. The Palestinian envoy in New Delhi is unhappy that India did not vote against Israel at the UN. And the Israeli envoy is unhappy at India welcoming the Iran deal. Forced to buy oil from Iraq, India has been wary of the US-backed Baghdad regime.

The Da’esh has already come to Af-Pak region and its flags, even if meant by the protesters to provoke harsh reaction from Delhi, are flying in Srinagar in Kashmir. It was high on the talks Prime Minister Modi had with the leaders he met during his Central Asiavisit. The new developments in West Asia as a whole require that India constantly review its approach to the region, guarding its national interests.