Divided they seem to fall in Bihar

There is a joke in these parts of the Western Uttar Pradesh. While driving along the Express High Way beyond Greater Noida towards Mathura-Agra, a friend asks another: "why are there no U-turns to this one". Pat came the reply: "Because this one was built during Mayawati's regime".

It is difficult to get unstuck of a reputation, particularly when it is a hard earned one. If Mulayam Singh has earned the sobriquet - U-turn-neta - it is not something that his rivals had saddled him with it. He sprinted towards it.

Bihar voter is virtually at the crossroads today not knowing whom to go with in the ensuing Assembly elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav, head of the Janata Pariwar Maha-gathbandhan, has dealt the biggest blow to the credibility of the non-NDA grouping while pulling out of the alliance.

Mulayam is known for his 'U-turns", but this one was not expected, definitely not so soon. After all, he could wait for the outcome of the elections was the expectation. With the NCP already out of the fold, angry over the offer of three seats in the 243-seat Bihar Assembly, Mulayam’s move exposes the chinks in the Janata Pariwar armour.

The immediate provocation for the pull-out is the usual "not being honoured or given due" in seat sharing. It may be recalled that Mulayam planned to contest 25 seats in Bihar. The seat-sharing, however, ended with an agreement that the JD (U) led by Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar at the helm would contest in 100 seats and the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD would fight in equal number of seats.

As a side-show, the Congress was asked to contest in 40 seats. Though Mulayam was chosen as the 'karta' of the Maha-ghatbandhan, the 'karma and kriya' part was divested from him completely. Mulayam had absolutely no role so far either in the planning of the campaign or in the seat-sharing process.

For that matter, in Nitish’s grand scheme, even Lalu has been sidelined as he does not even figure in the flexis or posters in the State despite his known crowd-puling abilities. The recent Gandhi Maidan rally in which Nitish-Lalu-Sonia participated overly evidences this.

Mulayam, who is wary of his own prospects in UP, was hoping to latch on to at least a dozen or so seats with the help of his Bihari allies, so that his position would not be affected in the event of a backlash in UP in the next bout. But, there was no way Nitish could have agreed to this.

The JD (U) has already suffered a major loss while accommodating its alliance partners Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. It may be recalled that in the 2010 Assembly elections, the JD (U) contested 141 seats and won 115 with a success rate of 81.56 percent, RJD contested 168 and won just 22 at 13.09 percent rate, while the Congress fought in all the 243 seats and won only four with a strike rate of 1.65 percent.

In this backdrop, both RJD and Congress stand to gain at the cost of JD (U) in the new scheme of seat-sharing. This election saw JD (U) contesting as an alliance partner of the BJP in which the latter had fought in 102 seats and won 91 with an 89.22 percent success rate. The SP won nine of the 146 it contested.

There is no way the grand alliance seems to be gaining. As any dentist would put it, losing one tooth would weaken the walls of the others and eventually they all fall. First Jitan Ram Manjhi walked out on Nitish. Next was the turn of the NCP. And now it is Mulayam. How long does it take for Lalu to do so?

Bihar voter is not just looking at development, but also at stability, notwithstanding, the promises of special packages. He is also concerned of his Netas credibility. At this rate, he knows that Nitish and Lalu too would be at loggerheads soon over the coveted Chief Minister's post, if they come to power, that is.

By W CHANDRAKANTH