BJP may get to sit pretty

Bihar Elections 2015

Cracks appear to be widening in Nitish-Lalu camp

RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav is proving himself to be critical to the fortunes of the political parties in Bihar now as never before. It is clear to everyone by now that if there is going to be any single factor that would tilt the scales in anyone's favour or away from it, it would be Lalu Yadav.

If he is emerging as the most loved – among his own caste – and the most hated – in the Mahagathbandhan – then it is inevitable. Lalu Yadav stands on the cusp of the change that Bihar seeks to usher in at this crucial juncture. The reason is quite simple.

If Lalu could bring lakhs of Yadavs to the Mahagathbandhan's rally at Gandhi Maidan the other day, it is because of this reason alone that he could drive away the Nitish voters away from the Gathbandhan. There is a fear of Yadav resurgence dominating the concerns of the Maha dalits and the EBCs of Bihar today. This could prove costly to Nitish.

The Nitish-Lalu combine is already being viewed as a sinking ship. The Congress was the first to realise it in extending Sonia Gandhi's tenure for one more year to shield young Rahul Gandhi from any negative fallout in this State. Sonia Gandhi and her coterie is waiting for a "blockbuster launch" of the prodigal son like a filmy hero who plans his son's launch under the right director.

Whether it will ever be able to do so in near future remains a big question. As for the Bihar elections, it is not the time to announce Rahul leadership as it is apprehensive it could end up with a single digit outcome. The party's surveys have are indicative of this, sources say.

The Congress knows that the DNA comment of the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is not going to affect the BJP much as the Lalu factor is being weighed against the same. Even Nitish was wary of Lalu's popularity and hence did not allow him to speak ahead of others at the meeting.

He was sure that the young Yadavs' thronging the venue would desert it the moment Lalu finishes his speech. On its part, the BJP is least worried about the noises being made by Jitin Ram Manjhi. The latter's attempt to project himself as the primary leader of the dalits of all hues has come a cropper so far.

The BJP is well aware of this. It feels Manjhi would be in no position to make much quantitative addition to its vote bank. Even if he walks out, he would not make difference to its chances as he would at best be chipping away JD(U) votes. A consolidation has not taken place as yet.

The indications are that Bihar voter, fed up with Lalu's exploitation and Nitish's helplessness, could experiment with something new this time to overcome his apprehensions of Yadav resurgence in the State. The opportunism of the non-BJP alliance and the parting away of the SP and NCP have all sent wrong signals.

The Nitish-Lalu-Congress defences are fast developing too many cracks. There seems to be little that they could do to block the trickle that could soon turn out into a flood. Secondly, a debate on development is surely gaining currency Bihar, be it Nitish model or Modi module.

It could be an after-effect of the announcement of a special package by the Centre. The excess of negative propaganda against the same has not sent positive vibes. In addition, it has come to be seen as an effort to scuttle the inflow of funds for the sake of petty political gains.

It is not that NDA coalition is completely happy with its own state, but the worries for Modi-Paswan combine are far less. The BJP is confident that the chinks in the armour of the Mahagathbandhan could be enlarged further. The coming together of friends-turned-foes-turned-friends" may not bring their respective vote banks together, at least this time.

Even as Modi eagerly waits to implement his national agenda in the light of a favourable verdict here, the Opposition too is waiting with bated breath for the result to launch an incisive attack to cripple the Modi government further in future. Between October 12 and November 5, the 6.68 crore Bihar electorate will decide who is to stay and who is to go!

By W Chandrakanth