US-Russia cold war redux in Syria

Russia is bombing mainly non-IS rebels including some that the US is supporting. The prime motive is to shore up the crumbling Assad regime and it is the non-IS rebels who are currently posing a threat to Assad

Since 30 September, Russia has been bombing Islamic State targets in Syria at the request of Bashar al-Assad, the country’s beleaguered President fighting for political survival since 2011. Assad now controls, and that too only in a manner of speaking, about a third of Syria. His army, once about 3,00,000, has shrunk to 1,00,000 or less.

As a matter of fact, but for the strong and consistent support, military, financial, and diplomatic given by Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah, there is every reason to believe that Assad might have shared the fate of Gaddafi. Russia had suggested a “broad international coalition against terrorism” that would be similar to the World War II-era coalition that united the Soviet Union, the US, Britain, France, and China against Hitler’s Germany despite their various disagreements.

Putin said Russia, as the current president of the Security Council, would soon convene a ministerial meeting on extremist threats in the Middle East. As the bombing continued, it was abundantly clear that Russia was bombing mainly non-IS rebels including some that the US is supporting. There is good military logic in Russia’s choice of targets.

The prime motive was to shore up the crumbling Assad regime and it is the non-IS rebels who are currently posing a threat to Assad. The targets hit by Russia include armed groups supported by the US, Saudi Arabia, and their allies. There have been reports that Iran might send ground troops and these along with the Hezbollah might cash in on the damage caused by the Russian bombing and try to capture territory. However, it is too soon to say whether Iran has sent ground troops.

Will Russia bomb IS targets in Iraq? Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi has stated that he would welcome Russian bombing of IS targets in his country. This shows his frustration with the US-led bombing of IS targets in Iraq for a year without any significant weakening of the IS. Are we witnessing a triangular relationship in the making among Iran, Iraq, and Russia? As of now, Russia and Iran are working together. So are Iran and Iraq. The triangular relationship is likely to get stronger.

Western media has speculated that Putin wanted to stage a comeback to the Middle East as a Great Power after the exit of the Soviet Union from the region in the 1970s. There is a formula often repeated to let the Syrians decide for themselves. This formula does not make any sense since more than half of the 22 million population are displaced, with more than 4 million out of Syria.

Even within Syria, there are four broad divisions: Assad, IS, Kurds, and a variety of armed groups. As of now it looks as though Syria has been cut into many pieces and there is no way that the pieces can be put together to resurrect Syria as a single political entity. Therefore, what is urgently required is a cease-fire to put an end to senseless killings. President Obama has harshly criticised the Russian bombing.

It will lead Russia into a “quagmire”. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others have called upon Russia to stop bombing non-IS targets, but to no avail. By sending four SU-30 Flankers capable of air-to air action to Latakia, Russia has sent a warning to Turkey which wants a no-fly zone along its border with Syria. Egypt has endorsed Russia. It is to be noted that Egypt has run the risk of incurring the displeasure of Saudi Arabia, its main aid giver.

To conclude, as of now it appears that it is a stalemate with no final winners. The only painful certainty is unending bloodshed and more Syrians seeking refuge in Europe. Recently an Indian newspaper carried a story that the refugee crisis faced by Europe is the largest since the end of World War II. Obviously, media memory is short and it cannot recall the 10 million refugees who came to India before the birth of Bangladesh.

By K P Fabian