New social engineering in AP politics apace

As the dust slowly settles down over the much-talked-about Special Category Status for Andhra Pradesh, the contour map of the emerging political State is getting clearer.There is always a defining moment in politics and as far as Andhra Pradesh is concerned, September 7 will go down in the history as one such. (Of course, earlier there was another defining moment – around midnight of a December 10, in 2009 - when the then Home Minister, P Chidambaram, declared that the process of forming Telangana State has begun").

Ironically, this time around, the firm commitment of the BJP-led NDA Government to deny AP its special category status again was made public on a Wednesday, a couple of hours before midnight.Whether the BJP leadership had in mind the upcoming Pawan Kalyan's Atmagourava Garjana"meeting of Kakinada in mind in making the announcement or it was the "push"of the AP Chief Minister, N Chandrababu Naidu, that forced it to commit itself to the State otherwise, remains unanswered.

In announcing with great emphasis that "there shall be no SCS for AP and what is on the anvil is just an assistance package" the BJP has not only cleared all ambiguity over the issue, but also thrown down the gauntlet to the Opposition.A helpless Chandrababu Naidu is caught between the devil and the deep sea.

He is in an unenviable position of not only battling the Opposition onslaught but also facing the public scorn. “Ït is better to take what is given, and fight for what is my right" he said in a bid to sound convincing enough.

That is not as easy for him as he thinks. The BJP is gearing up to, on the pretext of highlighting the benefits of the assistance package, cornering credit for its contribution to AP. The BJP's owning-up-the-credit-process" has a clear political strategy. It is
preparing for the inevitable of future formations with or without the support of the local players.

The TDP leadership may have been happy at this development, as this could keep Pawan Kalyan and his spirited supporters, away from the BJP in the light of the "sentiment" cloathing the SCS issue. It may also draw solace from the fact that PK has not foul-mouthed the TDP leadership as much.

Even if the TDP fails to understand the import of this aspect, the BJP central leadership is not foolish to mis-read the situation. It is more interested in analysing why Pawan targeted the BJP and the AP MPs more than the local TDP leadership.Apprehensions abound here. Pawan may have been deliberate in choosing the words in Kakinada. To any seasoned observer, it does not look like a one off-show.

The TDP leadership may wish away the same, but Pawan does not look like a one man army, at least in his planning. That he kept silent about the local TDP leadership may not be without a reason. He, perhaps, does not want to antagonise his own ilk so early
into the political fight.

Or he could have, already, gotten the nod of some bigwigs of the TDP to queer the pitch slowly for everyone. If Pawan wants to go alone till the very last moment, this argument makes sense. The BJP national leadership, no doubt, was eyeing the Kapu community as a possible partner in its political progress.

But, Pawan may not let that happen now. His own social grouping is important to him in strengthening his base. But, he did not look like confiding himself to the same. In targeting individuals he was rather ensuring that the game remains wide open.

This is now a bother to the BJP leadership. And it should be to the TDP too in the days to come. Several leaders from within the BJP, the TDP and even the Congress are in touch with Pawan this time around. This has gone largely unnoticed in the maze of politics spinning around the Special Category Status.

A section of the AP BJP leadership is gleeful over the personal attack on M Venkaiah Naidu. So does another section in the TDP. The pleasure is vicarious, but it does not bode well to the fortunes of the ruling alliance that scraped through to power with the help of PK.

This should be a cause for worry to YSRCP to some extent, however confident it may be over the latest developments and happy in concluding, that the arithmetic progression may be in its favour. Underestimating the enemy is one of the strengths of Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. However, he should know that holding back his own flock maybecome a daunting task in this new age politics, however pessimistic it may sound to him. His fortunes are linked to the legal cases he is facing.

The Left parties have nothing to lose. Their "blow-hot, blow cold" equations give them ample room for experimentation. They are bound to sail with whoever they perceive as a credible alternative. If they see Pawan Kalyan as one, they need not hesitate in joining hands with him, however, ideologically bankrupt he may sound to them.Time for a new experiment in social engineering in AP politics is not far away!