Trump certain to become the Potus

US elections are less than a month away and there’s raging debate not just in the United States but across the world, on who out of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will win the next presidency. While the domestic interest in their presidential elections is natural in a functional democracy, international curiosity is also fully justified, given the current state of world affairs and critical candidature in the scheduled elections.

In my objective analysis as a strategist, I am fully convinced after thorough analysis that Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States of America. My analysis is based on multiple factors, which led me to an objective conclusion of his imminent win of the Presidency.

It’s fundamentally important to understand that ‘all politics is local.’ Donald Trump is clearly focused on that and is catering to the basic aspirations of US electorate. It might, for outsiders both inside and outside USA, look as if he is making a fool of himself even by running for the office as Hillary Clinton win is sealed long before.

Especially, after the recent video leaks of his incredulous banter on woman and a tirade of groping charges, there are not many in the world predicting his win. I am one of those early and rare analysts in the world, now fully endangered, who predicted his rise since June of 2015, when he expressed his intent to run for the office. I am following the election campaign closely and continue to foresee a stupendous win for Donald Trump.

I neither have any stakes in his win nor have any personal affinity to Republican Party, his personality or his business success. It’s purely out of my professional interest to analyse complex, strategic, large and historic events that I am involved. Those who analyse to write off Trump should understand that Trump nomination to presidency is not by default, it was by design. Trump accomplished Republic Party nomination through a very successful spectrum of wins in primaries and caucuses.

It’s not possible without decisive support of the Republican electorate across the nation that he could come all the way to nomination and beyond. It’s important not to discount the degree of acceptance within the length and breadth of his party, which eventually led to his win against eight contestants for his presidential nomination. Many political pundits writing him off are being shallow, juvenile, frivolous and quite indignant of the democratic values and process of a time-tested and unique US electoral system.

Personal conduct, appearance, sophistication, dignity are critical to leaders. However, these in isolation cannot be key factors for electing an executive head of a state, especially when there’s a lot at stake for the nation and when a candidate’s possession of other competencies critical for the job are proven beyond doubt.

Male banter, visits to beauty pageant green rooms, illicit personal affairs can be personally scandalous and derogatory, but might not be huge criteria for electing a country’s President, who needs to be more than just a good boy. In fact these issues are not even a first in the history of US politics. It’s not that US doesn’t have history of sex scandals involving not just presidential candidates but even ruling presidents at the white house. Media-driven outrage in these issues will be eventually rationalised.

In my assessment US electorate is too smart to get swayed by diversions and distractions from larger national issues impacting millions, which should be central to the election debates than personal vices of the candidates. Donald Trump is not just fighting Hillary, he is fighting a warped media, secular and equality brigade, big corporations, idealism groups, women right groups, immigrant bodies, pro-Islam groups, pro-Mexican, pro-black, pro-Chinese groups. He is also fighting many senior leaders of his own party.

The bitterness of all these groups rises from the strength and will of the candidate and he being a non-conformist. It’s not easy to assimilate for them, that he is not a regular political stereotype. He is unfathomable, unpredictable and has led his detractors and critics into the unknown. They are quite shocked at this and are still struggling to explore patterns, which are endearing him to electorate.

Historically, America is just not any other nation when it comes to standing up to its values. Somehow, they have lost that edge in the last few decades. It looks as if Donald Trump is trying to bridge that gap and make up for the loss. Behind all his loose talk and attack on select groups and communities – both domestic and international – there’s hidden strategy to address a niche electorate for his win and he is at it. Clearly, there is a method to his madness.

This election is a last, or a lost opportunity for USA to reclaim their unique greatness. In the larger context, that’s the way I see Donald Trump is fighting in this election. Democrats seem to have miscalculated the pulse of the American electorate which gave them two consecutive wins. It’s evident there was a preemption of Hillary’s candidature by her party, for a unique pitch advantage of ‘first woman president.’

For Democrats, Hillary brings to table as a former first lady, as a senator and as secretary of Obama administration, what no other Republican candidate can in the contest. However, the odds are piled up against Democratic Party this time around, more than Hillary Clinton as a candidate.
Lack of political baggage is turning into an asset for Donald Trump, while the same is a clear liability for Hillary.

For over the last few years, American people in general are not happy with their current situation globally. The well-informed, literate US electorate is aware of the current status of their sagging economy, growing debt, migration of jobs to Mexico and China, domestic tax burden, ageing population, challenging security situation both at home and abroad and they are also aware of the imminent threat to their global unipolar leadership, with the rise of China, resurgent Russia and India.

Suddenly over this decade, Americans are feeling that they are being compared with the incomparable. The middle class heavy US electorate is explicitly unhappy with the last two terms of Obama administration. While they liked their first black President, they gave thumbs down to his administration. It’s evident that he could not deliver what he promised.

Healthcare, medicare and social security are struggling for funds. Jobs situation deteriorated, so did the investment inflows. There are no great wins for Obama except execution of Osama Bin Laden and securing the homeland from further terror attacks after Bush administration. As if to add insult to injury, Hillary Clinton plans to increase taxes, cut military spending, permit refugee inflow, has no real plan for ISIS elimination and has visible health issues, which do not seem to present a great script for a spectacular win as being projected by surveys.

Donald Trump is an unconventional politician and a non-conforming leader. He has broken and bent many rules for his stupendous rise in business and to be the multi-billionaire that he is today. I clearly assess that the US electorate is seeking a business man-like Trump to be their President.

They strongly believe their recent presidents have been soft on many issues important for USA – its economy, its security and its hegemony. They feel let down in negotiating better business and trade deals with the world and believe they were run over in deals by foxy, manipulative, smart Asians, Europeans and even Mexicans.

Today they seem to believe, Donald Trump will be ‘the American answer’ to the big bad world out there. I strongly feel the Americans have made up their mind to bring in a successful and a ‘do whatever it takes’ business man as their President, to bring back the lost edge of USA. Donald Trump’s victory will be a classic win of an underdog, an outsider and a rebel. It will also be a game-changer, rule bender of an established social and political stereotype of an American presidential candidate.

An Un-Presidential, Un-Calm, Un-Civil, Un-Politically right, Un-Polite, Un-Charming, Un-Scrupulous, Un-Gentlemanly, Un-Media Friendly, Socially Un-acceptable behaviour of Donald Trump is still acceptable to over 38% of the US electorate, if one were to even go by the survey outcomes by Hillary tilting US Media. However, I see a warped 25 to 30% error in these survey results.

Donald Trump is real blood and flesh. He is not putting up an act. He is not trying to be nice or politically right. He is not exhibiting coached, well-trained social behaviours. He is in your face, he is being himself. He is being outlandishly original and I feel that’s what’s coming across as honesty in his appeal to the electorate. He is passionate about his nation, even at times unscrupulously so. He has declared war on Islam, when Hillary can’t even utter a word like ‘Radical Islam’.

In contrast, Hillary comes across as well-tutored, coached, sophisticated politician. The exact opposite is what Donald Trump represents. Trump represents the original American values of superiority, arrogance, male dominance, aggression, straight talk, ambition, American interest, subjugation, leadership of the world, hegemony. He doesn’t hesitate to accept this. In fact he wears it on his sleeve with an explicit campaign slogan “Let’s make America great again.”

Whether one loves or hates these American values, it’s a fact that they have been fading in the last decade. He is positioning himself as a saviour of these distinct American values. After being elected the President, will Donald Trump retain his distinct Americanism? Will he deliver on the lofty promises? Will he resurrect the sagging greatness of America? It is another debate altogether.

But for now, going by my professional assessment of what every American wants badly is, their country to stop the flight of jobs and investments. What they want are lower taxes and more funds for welfare, health and medicare. They want better and renovated civic infrastructure; they want safer inter-city communities and lower crime rates. They want effective law and order above petty minority vote-bank politics.

They want a safer and secure homeland than a nation with open gates to refugees from troubled Europe and West Asia. They want their borders secure and don’t want thugs with drugs to cross over and poison their kids. They want elimination of ISIS with an iron fist. They want back their leadership legacy of the world to be more distinct, than tentative.

Americans want their nation to be great again. I do personally believe a strong America is good for the world. The world is unsafe & insecure today because of a weak America. I also believe a strong India will be great for the world, too. As I foresee, for their America to be great again and strongly believing that only someone like Donald Trump can do it, the 538 electors on November 8th of 2016 will choose for the people of United States of America, Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton with a massive majority and make him the POTUS. (The writer is a professional strategist. The views are completely personal and not made as a BJP spokesperson)

By Krishna Saagar Rao