Frittering away golden chance

Whatever demonetisation may do to the country’s economy, it has certainly galvanised politics and public discourse.

As people brace for cashless living, running from one ATM to another and find ways to finance their weddings and pay medical bills, the government is under attack and this has offered a rare golden opportunity to opposition parties.

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Opposition has got the biggest chance to perform since it lost the 2014 polls, but it is clear that it is divided and confused about the strategy. Thanks to opposition ineptness and the government’s deft media management, the government and the BJP have got away, throwing stones at the opposition

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But how far and how effectively has the opposition responded to this opportunity? We do see noises across the country reflected in the media and at political meetings.

Leaders exhort their workers to protest the demonetisation even as they confabulate how to take on the government and the Bharatiya Janata Party. But considering the public suffering, it is not adding up to much.

The public has shown tremendous tolerance and equanimity and the critics of the government, total ineptness. The government is nowhere being threatened from any quarters.

Besides their own contradictions, the opposition parties’ basic handicap is that they cannot oppose the stated objectives behind demonetisation aggressively trumpeted by the government – Modi downwards.

Any critic is by innuendo accused of being with black money hoarders, terrorists etc. Indeed, this aggressiveness has not ebbed even as public suffering has persisted.

Modi’s stance has been on how the corrupt, the black money hoarders, the militants and the black-marketers have been hit by the sudden move.

The approach is muscular. In response, the opposition has only thrown innuendoes and allegations at the government.

All political parties deal in cash, especially during elections. But Modi and his government have made it appear that the BJP is not, and by implications, other parties are.

Although all parties live in the proverbial glass house, thanks to opposition ineptness and the government’s deft media management, the government and the BJP have got away throwing stones at the opposition.

It is the NDA government, but the BJP is fighting almost single-handedly what with important alliance constituent, Shiromani Akali Dal, busy with Punjab elections.

And Shiv Sena, despite its preoccupation with civic polls in Maharashtra, has been taking pot shots at the BJP on this issue.

Amidst the demonetisation turmoil, the BJP has managed to win civic polls in Maharashtra, licking all parties including the Sena, and in Gujarat.

Secondly, although the public suffering is countrywide, much of the churning is in the North between the BJP and the former Janata Parivar and socialists.

In the South, Jayalalithaa is no more, even as her rival Karunanidhi has fallen ill and is in ICU. Modi can count on Chandrababu Naidu, a trusted ally and on Navin Patnaik.

About Telangana’s Chandrashekar Rao, it is difficult to see which side he is. The opposition is further compromised by a significant give and take.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has sided with his old foe, the Prime Minister, bridging a deep and long gap that developed when he opposed Modi’s anointment as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in 2013.

Nitish had then staked the future of his government and won. He trounced BJP again in the assembly polls.

On the face of it, Nitish has no reason to make up with Modi. But he is being troubled by senior ally Lalu Prasad.

Given the latter’s reputation in Bihar and at the national level, Nitish has chosen to switch sides, tactically, without so far endangering his alliance with Lalu or the state government.

Unlike most other politicians who also change sides and play political games, Nitish has always been politically correct and wants to be perceived that way.

Bihar, it would seem, is headed for a Nitish versus Lalu confrontation. Nitish has made his one flank safe by reaching out to Modi.

Any speculation at this juncture of this leading to a return of the BJP to a Nitish-led government and/or Lalu Prasad quitting would, however, would be premature.

As these Delhi-Patna permutations-combinations emerge, where does that leave the rest of the opposition?

It got the biggest chance to perform since it lost the 2014 polls, but it is clear that it is divided and confused about the strategy. Some are even working at cross-purposes.

The biggest disappointment has come from the Congress. Save some good speeches in the Rajya Sabha by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Anand Sharma and P Chidambaram outside of parliament, the party has been ineffective.

The man of the moment could have been Rahul Gandhi, who may become Congress President in the near future. But he is not suited for mass politics.

It is one thing for him to go to Rashtrapati Bhavan or to stand in the queue along with the public at an ATM. These are only symbolic acts.

Along with Arvind Kejriwal, the Delhi CM, he has been engaged in frontal attacks on Modi, not so much the government or the BJP. But the aggressiveness is not paying.

It is the Congress that has to provide the intellectual heft to battle the government. Even those who vote for it must acknowledge that mother-son duo has failed to do this.

It is not for want of opportunity. Making the nation line up to secure its own money through an unplanned and casual act could not have been a better opportunity for them.

By now the Congress cadres should have stormed the public space, but that task has been taken up by West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.

She virtually left her Kolkata home for much of November month and camped at New Delhi’s Jantar Mantar. She then moved to Lucknow and then Patna.

She has grabbed the opposition space, whatever her motives. She has hobnobbed with Samajwadis and with Lalu Prasad and got photographed with Rabri Devi. There was much political bonding.

An incensed Mamata has attacked Nitish, though not by name, calling him ‘gaddar.’ And the JD(U) has retaliated by saying the government and the party that Mamata heads have much to answer about the chit funds and other scams.

Mamata sees BJP as her main challenger and not the Left or the Congress. This is reason enough for her to up the ante against Modi.

Both the leaders, it seems, are looking at a new polarisation in Bengal, and Mamata is doing it her way.

Back in Kolkata, she made a big issue of a routine military exercise. She claimed that Kolkata Police was not informed by the army authorities, which the latter effectively denied.

However, she grabbed the eyeballs and won the “TRP politics” that Rahul Gandhi is decrying, since he has failed at this gambit.

With the Congress putting up a weak show, once again, it is clear that a sort of political vacuum is emerging at the national level.

And that space is sought to be filled by regional parties. The Congress only managed to survive by forging alliance in Bihar and may do so in Uttar Pradesh.

But in the process, it is losing its cadres to the senior and more powerful allies.

It is a given in India’s politics that whenever one of the national parties weaken, the vacuum caused is sought to be filled by regional parties.

This happened first during the SVD experiment, when the Congress lost power in many northern states, during the coming together of parties under the banner of Janata Party in 1977, during 1989-91 and again during 1996-98. Will history repeat itself?

This is the writing on the wall. It will be clear after the UP and Punjab polls early next year, making them crucial signal for the 2019 national level stakes.