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Seemandhra vote puzzles parties
With the Seemandhra voters constituting a decisive vote in as many as 30 to 40 divisions, all the political parties, including the ruling TRS are moving heaven and earth to attract them. These divisions turn crucial as MIM has virtual monopoly over 45 to 50 divisions not just in the Old City but in some of the pockets in other parts of the city where there is a concentration of Muslim vote.
Hyderabad: With the Seemandhra voters constituting a decisive vote in as many as 30 to 40 divisions, all the political parties, including the ruling TRS are moving heaven and earth to attract them. These divisions turn crucial as MIM has virtual monopoly over 45 to 50 divisions not just in the Old City but in some of the pockets in other parts of the city where there is a concentration of Muslim vote.
The TDP had an overwhelming influence on Seemandhra voters. The party in alliance with the BJP could rally behind these voters during the 2014 polls evident from the combine winning in many Assembly seats along with the Lok Sabha seat.
The TRS could not make any dent in of these areas as the elections were held in the backdrop of the Telangana movement that targeted Seemandhra voters calling them settlers. The wounds of bifurcation were still fresh then. But, the TRS hopes that the situation has altered significantly since then.
Even, the TDP – BJP circles acknowledge that they no longer have a similar sway over the Seemandhra vote. The lukewarm participation of Chandrababu Naidu, especially after the note-for-vote fiasco, has benefited TRS due to absence of surcharged atmosphere, which would have led to polarised voting.
Thus, the Seemandhra vote may not be an en bloc vote in favour or against any particular party, including TRS. The TRS has taken a conciliatory stand as a strategy to ensure that this vote does not turn out into a vote-bank against them.
But, there seems to be not many takers for the TRS new-found love for Seemandhra voters. However, other factors seemed to be turning things in favour of TRS. Firstly, the TRS is fielding local influential leaders from those who have come from the Seemandhra region.
These local leaders have to connect with these sections of voters. In fact, several grassroots workers from TDP and other parties, including those with Seemandhra background have also shifted their loyalties to TRS.
Apprehensions were deliberately created over the possible insecurity for Seemandhra people after the formation of Telangana state and that too TRS at the helm. But, the experience suggests that the life of Seemandhra people is also hassle free in the new state of Telangana.
The TRS is precisely focusing its campaign on this point that seems to be convincing a section of Seemandhra voters. But, many still hold the view that the TRS is yet to achieve proper chemistry with the Seemandhra voters. The possible vote shifts in favour of TRS from these sections are more strategic than with conviction.
The livelihood and business security concerns are also seem to be motivating yet another section to consider voting for TRS to avoid ‘trouble’. The incisive analysis of these perplexing and complex signals would lead to a conclusion that TRS has certainly made a dent into the Seemandhra vote on which the TDP and BJP combine is pinning its hopes.
However, the TDP– BJP alliance still has more influence over Seemandhra voters. These parties likely to rally this vote much more decisively wherever they have winning chances swinging the balance in their favour. At best, the TRS may get one-fourths to one-fifths of the Seemandhra vote.
But, the party hopes to win the GHMC as it has a monopoly over the voters who migrated to Hyderabad from other districts of Telangana. The TRS also hopes to benefit from the triangular contest and the Muslim vote in their favour due to tactical understanding with MIM. Even a share of Seemandhra vote is enough for the party to make up for the success.
But, the TRS circles are worried over possible backlash in voters with strong Telangana sentiment due to the party’s election-eve love for the Seemandhra vote. How far they accept Seemandhra candidates contesting on TRS ticket?
If this backlash is strong, the TRS may even erode the little dent it could make in Seemandhra vote. But, the TRS is hoping on the possible shift to it or at least the indifferent Seemandhra voter staying away from voting. The ruling party is strategising on the bandwagon effect by creating a pre-election climate that it is going to capture the GHMC.
