Heavy rain likely in TN as Northeast monsoon gains strength; cyclone threat looms

Chennai: The northeast monsoon is gaining momentum across Tamil Nadu, with meteorologists forecasting widespread rainfall over the coming days and warning that a developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal could intensify into a cyclonic storm next week.

According to rainfall statistics, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry received 25.4 cm of rainfall between October 1 and November 9, against the seasonal normal of 24.3 cm, registering a four per cent surplus.

The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) in Chennai has forecast heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds at isolated places in Ramanathapuram and Thoothukudi districts on Tuesday.

Moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds is also expected in Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Pudukkottai, Sivaganga, Dindigul, Madurai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari districts, besides Karaikal.

The prevailing atmospheric circulation over the Comorin Sea and adjoining areas is influencing rainfall activity across southern Tamil Nadu.

On Wednesday, moderate rainfall is likely at isolated places in several coastal and southern districts, including Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari. Other parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry may experience light rainfall.

The weather department has indicated that rainfall activity could continue across the state until November 15.

Meanwhile, attention is turning towards a fresh low-pressure area expected to develop over the southeastern Bay of Bengal around November 12. The weather officials are forecasting a system that could gradually intensify and move towards adjoining Sri Lanka by November 15. They suggested that favourable atmospheric conditions could allow the disturbance to strengthen further and potentially develop into a cyclonic storm.

Tamil Nadu could experience another spell of substantial rainfall between November 15 and 20 as the weather system approaches the coast. If the system develops into a cyclone, it could potentially cross the Tamil Nadu coastline around November 19 or subsequently, the officials indicated.

However, the possibility of cyclone formation, its eventual intensity and landfall location remain uncertain and will depend on the system's evolution over the coming days. The forecast has heightened attention on weather developments along Tamil Nadu's coastal districts as the northeast monsoon enters an active phase.

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