Telangana may have fewer children with TFR on decline

Hyderabad: The closer of about 1,500 government schools in the state due to the lack of students in various parts of the state is just the tip of the iceberg. Will the trends continue given the demographic changes started taking place with the dwindling fertility rates in the long run? And, do these factors need to be taken for formulating the immediate, short-term and long-term school education policy forecasting for the state?

According to the National Family Health Survey, 2019-21 (NFHS-5) population household profile says that the female population aged 6 years and above who ever attended school in the urban areas stood at 76.9 per cent as against 51.4 per cent in the rural areas with 60.9 per cent average. The population below age 15 years in the urban areas was 23.4 per cent as against 22.0 per cent in the rural areas with a state average during the NFHS-5 survey standing at 22.5 per cent.

The sex ratio of the total population (females per 1,000 males) in the urban areas was 1,015 and in the rural areas 1,070 with the state average of 1,049. As against this, the sex ratio at birth for children born in the last five years (females per 1,000 males) in the urban areas was 873 and 907 in the rural areas with the state average factored at 894. Though not the immediate concerns the dwindling fertility rates of the state show that it will have fewer children in the long run. Currently, the NFHS-5 survey shows that women aged 20-24 years married before the age of 18 years in the urban 16.7 per cent as against 27.4 in the rural. Similarly, men aged 25-29 years married before age 21 years in the urban areas was 9.1 per cent as against 21.1 per cent in the rural areas with the state average standing at 16.3.

The pointer that the NFHS-5 shows is that the total fertility rate (children per woman) in the urban was 1.8 as against 1.7 in the rural with the state average of 1.8. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) showed falling below the global standards. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level fertility rate at which population stability is achieved. With the TFR of Telangana standing at 1.8, there will be fewer children available to go to schooling.