Gold set for historic 6-month rally after 23 years — Is it time to invest?

Gold prices are on the brink of achieving a rare milestone—a six-month winning streak not seen in over two decades. As of mid-June 2025, the precious metal has already climbed over 3% for the month, and if it closes June in the green, this would mark the first such streak since May 2002, according to Axis Securities.

The surge in gold prices is being driven by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. A weaker US dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and heightened global tensions—particularly between Iran and Israel—have all contributed to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

In India, gold recently breached the ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams mark. While prices have slightly corrected from their all-time highs, they remain elevated and show resilience amid global volatility.

A Historic Signal for Long-Term Investors

Axis Securities highlights a striking historical pattern: in the past 75 years, gold has achieved a six-month winning run only 13 times. In 85% of those instances, prices surged over the following year, delivering average gains of nearly 50%. Over two years, returns nearly doubled, signaling a potentially strong upside for long-term investors.

“The six-month winning streak is historically a strong signal to increase gold allocation, especially as global de-dollarization and inflation fears persist,” Axis Securities noted.

Strong Fundamentals Add Support

Fundamentally, gold remains supported by central bank buying and continued investor demand due to economic and political uncertainty. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, remarked that while geopolitical tensions like the Iran-Israel conflict do spark short-term rallies, the broader bullish sentiment stems from enduring fundamentals.

“Safe-haven demand and central bank diversification away from the US dollar are key drivers. We maintain a constructive view on gold,” Menke said.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical standpoint, US gold prices are targeting the $3,600–$3,800 zone in the short term. Axis Securities advises swing traders to consider profit booking in that range, citing a potential dollar rebound. The crucial support level to watch is $3,245—below which, a correction toward $3,000 could materialize. For now, $3,289 remains the pivotal level to monitor before month-end.

In India, the current trading band for gold lies between ₹98,500 to ₹1,00,500, per Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities. He believes gold’s trajectory will be influenced by the US Fed's rate decision, geopolitical developments, and global trade dynamics.

Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity or Time for Caution?

While historical trends and fundamentals point to continued strength in gold, investors should weigh their decisions carefully. Short-term traders may find opportunities to book profits, but for long-term holders, this could be an ideal time to diversify into gold—especially in a world increasingly skeptical of dollar dominance.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.