Will Rahul Gandhi defeat Modi in 2029?

At the valedictory session of the two-day Bharat Summit in Hyderabad last week, Leader of Opposition (LoP) in Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi hurled the strongest indirect barb at Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Rahul claimed that India had slipped into the hands of fascists in the last one decade and he would defeat them with ‘truth, love and non-violence’. He also expressed doubts whether democracy exists in India. The Nehru-Gandhi family scion did not mention Modi’s name when he used the fascist barb though he subsequently exuded confidence that he would defeat Modi and that ‘is a done deal’.

But the target of the fascist remark is obvious. Rahul’s grudge is understandable. Modi kept Congress out of power in Gujarat for over 25 years, single-handedly drove Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power thrice at the Centre and in over 20 states since he took charge as the country’s Prime Minister in 2014. But the trillion-rupee question now is whether Rahul Gandhi will defeat Narendra Modi in the 2029 General Elections, thereby preventing the Gujarati strongman from setting an unprecedented record of securing fourth consecutive term as the country’s Prime Minister.

In recent months, Rahul Gandhi has emerged as the main face of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDI Alliance), a coalition of several parties. Two key factors helped Rahul Gandhi in this. He turned street-smart and led aggressive protests against the ruling dispensation with regard to exam paper leaks and discrepancies in voter lists that he alleged favoured BJP. The second factor is the weakening of key regional leaders like Mamata Banarjee in West Bengal.

Outside the INDI Alliance ambit too, Arvind Kejriwal of AAP is also going through a rough patch. Not long ago, these two leaders nurtured national ambitions. So, Rahul Gandhi has no challenger presently in the national opposition space and he seems to be in a hurry to consolidate his position as the rallying point for the opposition. But taking on Modi is a different ball game altogether and Rahul needs to get his strategies right. And his track record and that of Congress in this key aspect don’t earn any laurels. This applies even to the much-hyped Bharat Summit organised by the Congress government in Telangana.

Frankly speaking, this summit put the Revanth Reddy-led state government in a piquant situation. What does a state government have got to do with international relations? It invited representatives from 70 countries to discuss democracy and global policy issues! Despite counterclaims, it looked more like a Congress event and not that of the Telangana government. Congress, which is in power in four states, has the wherewithal to hold such events on its own.

Then why did it drag the Telangana government into it and give ammunition to the Opposition? Modi and other BJP leaders are already alleging that Congress has turned Telangana into its ATM. Not surprisingly, opposition parties in Telangana including BJP and Bharat Rashtra Samithi raised hue and cry over the summit. However, some ministers tried to blunt the Opposition’s criticism by claiming that it was an event to attract investments into Telangana.

But Rahul Gandhi didn’t mention investments into Telangana in his keynote address! It’s time for Congress to stop taking people for granted. If not, it will continue to pay a heavy price. Further, winning the 2028 Telangana Assembly polls is key for Congress to take on BJP in 2029. Despite that, it committed a faux pas. Or has it lost hopes on Telangana?

Nevertheless, committing strategic mistakes is not new for the grand old party. Its biggest strategic blunder was aligning with Shiv Sena (later Shiv Sena (UBT)) in 2019 for the sake of power. Shiv Sena under Bal Thackeray was known to pursue aggressive Hindutva.

It is incomprehensible how the Congress, which claims to be the custodian of secular credentials, could align with Shiv Sena. That alliance not only took a toll on both parties in Maharashtra but also hit the grand old party hard across India. Subsequently, Shiv Sena split into two with the main faction aligning with the BJP.

Furthermore, Rahul Gandhi seems to be spending too much political capital on discrepancies in voter lists and voter chori. As was evident in Bihar Assembly polls, these issues may not jell with the voters. Will he succeed in convincing voters on such issues?

At the Bharat Summit, he alleged that the BJP won 2014 elections by pumping dollars into India. This accusation might not find many takers. Further, this will show Congress and its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) partners in poor light as UPA was in power then.

It goes without saying that Rahul Gandhi must get his political strategies right over the next two years if he is serious about dislodging Modi from power. He should focus on issues like price rise and unemployment that connect well with the voters.

He also needs to bridge the wide popularity gap between him and Modi. According to a recent survey, the popularity gap is more than 20 per cent with Modi leading by a mile. Rahul should also start nurturing INDI Alliance into a better alternative to BJP.

As I mentioned in my earlier articles, the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, scheduled for early next year, hold key to which way the wind will blow in the 2029 General Elections. A victory in the key state will propel INDI block into the driver seat. A loss will further weaken INDI Alliance, especially the Akilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP).

Further, instead of bargaining for more Assembly seats from its allies, Congress should settle for a smaller number of Assembly seats and more MP seats. As it happened in Bihar, any hard bargain by Congress with its allies in the Assembly polls benefits BJP and NDA, the national alliance it leads. Also, Congress will reap better benefits if it focuses on increasing its strike rate in those states where it is in direct competition with the BJP.

However, the fact of the matter is that BJP succeeded in turning a dexterous combination of Hindutva and development into a deadly political weapon against its political opponents. Unless Congress and its allies find a way to breach this fortress, it is not going to be easy to defeat Modi. How many people noticed that UP emerged as the third largest startup ecosystem in the last decade.

Further, Modi’s clean personal image and his constant talk of turning India into a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) is also resonating well with India’s growing middle class. The Opposition doesn’t have an effective counter narrative to that till now.

The BJP and Modi might also use violent protests in Europe and economic uncertainty in the US to underline the need for continuity in India for the country to emerge stronger globally. Countering this kind of narrative which appeals to aspirational Indians, will not be easy for the Opposition.

Moreover, as Congress and other opposition parties continue to target BJP and Modi through the flawed prism of Hindutva, it comes handy for BJP as such a narrative consolidates BJP’s core bank. On its part, BJP largely focuses on development plans.

Of course, for many people from recent generations, BJP’s win in 2014 and its third consecutive win 10 years later in 2024 are a new experience. No political party won its own majority in Lok Sabha for nearly a quarter of a century between 1989 and 2014. Modi ended the coalition streak.

Also, no Indian Prime Minister won a third consecutive term after Nehru in 1962. Modi achieved that milestone after 64 years. The candid comment by Rahul at the Bharat Summit that political developments in the last 12 years shocked him, is understandable!

These show how formidable an electoral foe Modi is. But, for Rahul Gandhi, winning the 2029 polls will be imperative as Congress lost three times consecutively under his direct and indirect leadership.

He can’t afford to lose yet another election. Given the way he is challenging Modi day in and day out, he seems to have the best chance this time. Will he utilise it judiciously and emerge victorious? That depends on the kind of strategies he deploys over the next two years.

Otherwise, he and his party will have to wait patiently till the fatigue factor sets in against Modi and BJP. That’s the bottom line.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

P Madhusudhan Reddy

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P Madhusudhan Reddy is editor with The Hans India