With the passing of Pope Francis, the world turns its attention to the Vatican as the College of Cardinals prepares for a closely watched yet highly secretive papal conclave. While predicting the outcome is notoriously difficult, a number of prominent figures have emerged as potential successors—ranging from “continuity candidates” to those who would mark historic firsts for the Catholic Church.

Top Contenders for the Papacy

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)

A moderate and longtime Vatican insider, Parolin has served as Secretary of State since 2013. Known for his diplomatic finesse, he played a central role in the Vatican’s dialogue with China and other governments. While critics view him as too pragmatic, supporters call him a peace-driven idealist aligned with Francis’s vision.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)

A former archbishop of Manila, Tagle would be the first Asian pope. Once seen as a likely successor favored by Francis, his star has dimmed slightly in recent years. Tagle has expressed progressive views on LGBTQ+ inclusion, though he holds conservative positions on abortion.

Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)

Turkson could become the first Black pope in modern times. He has spoken passionately on climate justice, poverty, and human rights, while maintaining traditional positions on core Church teachings. He has also criticized harsh anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa, advocating for more compassionate approaches.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)

A staunch conservative and intellectual, Erdő represents a potential pivot away from Francis’s reformist agenda. He has opposed liberal immigration policies and champions traditional Catholic doctrine, making him a favorite among traditionalists.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)

Seen as a continuation of Francis’s legacy, Zuppi is known for his progressive outlook and social justice advocacy. As the Vatican’s peace envoy to Ukraine, he has met both Russian and Ukrainian leaders. His moderate stance on LGBTQ+ issues and commitment to peace align him closely with Francis’s vision.

Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça (Portugal, 59)

One of the younger contenders, Tolentino is known for his modernist views and cultural engagement. Close to Francis, he supports a more inclusive Church and has drawn both admiration and criticism for his progressive associations, including ties to feminist and pro-choice voices within religious circles.

Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta, 68)

Initially a conservative, Grech has shifted toward more progressive stances under Francis. He has voiced support for female deacons and criticized restrictive immigration policies, reflecting his adaptability and evolving perspective.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)

As the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa has led the Christian community in a volatile region. After the 2023 Hamas attacks, he offered himself as a hostage to secure the release of children—an act that earned international respect. He remains publicly cautious on controversial Church doctrines.

Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79)

An outspoken traditionalist, Sarah is known for his opposition to gender ideology and progressive theological trends. Once seen as a counterweight to Francis, he maintains strict positions on celibacy, sexuality, and Islamic extremism. Like Turkson, he would be among the first Black popes in centuries.