A cliffhanger in offing

The much-awaited schedule for the Bihar Assembly Elections is out. Between October 12 and and November 5, in all 6.68 crore electorate weighs its options, in an election that could have a national impact in shaping the pro- and anti-Narendra Modi forces of the country.

It is widely perceived that Bihar outcome could either make or mar the future of some political parties at least. If the Biharis, whose leaders' DNA was questioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, chose to go the Delhi way, it could spell real trouble for the Modi's plans as an emboldened Opposition would harness all their forces together against him.

In the event voters prefer to overcome their weakness for the caste polarisation, it could mean almost an end to the aspirations of some local leaders at least.

Bihar has been witness to much drama in the formulation of alliances, regroupings and the subsequent walk-outs in the anti-BJP camp. The euphoria of the announcement of Mahagathbandhan of the erstwhile Janata Parivar forces did not, expectedly, last long. The coming together of Lalu's RJD and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) is still a 'work in progress' experiment.

Alliances need certain give-and-take from the partners.But, the hard stance adopted by the two saw the U-turn neta, Mulayam Singh Yadav, walking out of the Mahagathbandhan in a huff, protesting against denial of his rightful share of the pie. The NCP, too, sought to distance itself and though its effect is only symbolic.

The Mahatma Gandhi Maidan meeting of the RJD-JD(U)-Congress has led to apprehensions among the most backward classes and dalits over the probable Yadav resurgence. In between, Jitin Ram Manjhi's walkout from the fold of Nitish Kumar, angered over his removal from the Chief Minister's post, was another blow to the Gathbandhan, to some extent at least.

As for the NDA, the picture is not much different, but the two key players, the BJP and the Lok Jana Shakti, are maintaining their cool and keeping their strengths intact. That Manjhi is now acting a bit dicey may not prove costly to the Modi-Shah script.

The Left forces coming together to take on the rest is certainly not good news for the Nitish-Lalu-Congress alliance because, however small their take-aways could be, it would affect the vital margins.

A highly fractured Bihar electorate has, in the last 20 years, preferred to go with their leaders unmindful of its own fate. Development had become a huge casualty and unemployment is driving a majority of youth to other States and cities in search of livelihoods.

Which developmental module people prefer is to be seen. Does social justice still have its place in the people's mind or fear of a particular caste's domination tilts the scales in favour of Narendra Modi is to be seen.

Will the coming together of Lalu and Nitish be more acceptable to the people or the glib talk of Modi on his developmental agenda is to be seen.