Housewives don’t feel ‘price’ benefits

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan may have reshaped monetary policy and brought down consumer inflation to the lowest in years, but convincing people like housewife Shaila Pai that prices are under control is proving a tough challenge.

Entrenched expectations of high inflation in India are feeding into higher wages and other prices, which could tie Rajan's hands even as he faces growing pressure to cut interest rates for a fourth time this year to help a patchy economy. Pai, a mother of two in Mumbai, says she has yet to feel any benefit from the official data showing inflation is easing.

Her living costs are as high as they have ever been and the family is cutting down on travel, eating out and personal spending. "The biggest part of our household expenses goes towards education, food and medicines, and all of them are very expensive. We can't cut corners much there," she said. "I expect hospital, food, education costs will continue to rise in the double digits."

She is not alone. An RBI survey this week showed households expect consumer inflation to hit 10.1 percent within three months, almost double the current 5.4 percent and a level not seen since late 2013. At its latest policy review, the bank kept rates steady but held out the prospect of another easing after cutting the policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point so far this year.

"Price pressures are building up and these are sticky," said a senior policymaker familiar with the RBI's thinking. "We are cautious. We have to see whether core inflation will feed into headline numbers or not." Since becoming Governor in September 2013, Rajan has refocused policy on consumer inflation instead of wholesale prices. Earlier this year, the government and RBI agreed on adopting a target to keep inflation between 2 to 6 percent.

By Suvashree Choudhury