India posts 5 years of 7 pc plus growth, forecasts raised: Top economist

New Delhi: Nearly all major forecasters -- including IMF, ADB and World Bank -- have recently raised their growth forecasts for India to above 7 per cent for this year and next, top economist Kyunghoon Kim has said.

In a post on X, Kim said the upward revision is remarkable in itself and even more so when viewed against India's recent performance.

Recapping growth, he said after contracting by 5.8 per cent during the pandemic, India's economy rebounded by 9.7 per cent in 2021, then grew by more than 7 per cent in each of the next four years.

Many economists -- including himself -- repeatedly revised forecasts upwards as quarterly GDP figures came in.

"That makes five consecutive years of growth above 7 per cent, matching the 2003-2007 run, when India attracted global attention as one of the BRIC economies. If current forecasts hold, India will surpass that streak," he said.

Simple average annual growth in 2021-2025 was 7.83 per cent, the second-highest five-year average in data going back to 1960, just behind the 7.89 per cent recorded in 2003-2007, he noted

Sustaining such momentum over several years deserves attention, according to the economist.

"India is operating on a very different scale today. Its GDP was just over $1 trillion in 2007; now it is nearly $4 trillion. The same 7 per cent growth rate therefore represents a much larger expansion," Kim said.

"Many challenges remain, but this economic performance of a country of 1.4 billion people deserves celebration. I hope economists at major institutions and I will once again be adding a few decimal points to our forecasts when the next quarterly GDP figures arrive," he added in the thread.

Earlier in October, the IMF expected that India poised to become the world's fourth-largest economy in 2027, overtaking Japan in nominal GDP terms. It underscored the diverging economic trajectories of Asia's two largest democracies.

The IMF has forecasted that Japan is expected to retain the fourth position this year but India is projected to move ahead by 2027 with an economy valued at about $4.5 trillion.

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