Time to worry about climate change

An urgent call has gone out for wealthy nations' support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change. The 2022 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change paints a dark picture of the future of life on earth, characterized by ecosystem collapse, species extinction, and climate hazards such as heat waves and floods. These are all linked to physical and mental health problems, with direct and indirect consequences of increased morbidity and mortality.

To avoid these catastrophic health effects across all regions of the globe, there is broad agreement — as 231 health journals argued together in 2021 that the rise in global temperature must be limited to less than 1·5°C compared with pre-industrial levels. The latest issue of Lancet has highlighted the same seeking to draw the attention of the rich nations to the emerging situation pointing to the drastic consequences that await the have-not's in the world.

COP27 is the fifth Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to be organised in Africa since its inception in 1995. Ahead of this meeting, comes the call. This is essential not just for the health of those countries, but also for the health of the whole world. Ironically, Africa has suffered disproportionately from the climate crisis, although it has done little to cause the crisis.

The climate crisis has had an impact on the environmental and social determinants of health across Africa, leading to devastating health effects. Impacts on health can result directly from environmental shocks and indirectly through socially mediated effects. Climate-change-related risks in Africa include flooding, drought, heat waves, reduced food production, and reduced labour productivity. Droughts in sub-Saharan Africa have tripled between 1970–79 and 2010–19. In 2018, devastating cyclones impacted 2·2 million people in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe.

In west and central Africa, severe flooding resulted in mortality and forced migration from loss of shelter, cultivated land, and livestock. Changes in vector ecology brought about by floods and damage to environmental hygiene has led to increases in diseases across sub-Saharan Africa, with rises in malaria, dengue fever, Lassa fever, Rift Valley fever, Lyme disease, Ebola virus disease, West Nile virus, and other infections. Rising sea levels reduce water quality, leading to water-borne diseases, including diarrhoeal diseases, a leading cause of mortality in Africa.

Extreme weather damages water and food supply, increasing food insecurity and malnutrition, which causes 1·7 million deaths annually in Africa. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, malnutrition has increased by almost 50% since 2012, owing to the central role agriculture has in African economies. Environmental shocks and their knock-on effects also cause severe harm to mental health. In all, it is estimated that the climate crisis has destroyed a fifth of the gross domestic product of the countries most vulnerable to climate shocks. The damage to Africa should be of supreme concern to all nations. This is partly for moral reasons.

It is highly unjust that the most impacted nations have contributed the least to global cumulative emissions, which are driving the climate crisis and its increasingly severe effects. North America and Europe have contributed 62% of carbon dioxide emissions since the Industrial Revolution, whereas Africa has contributed only 3%. Does the world have time for all this?