2024 polls: Fractious, sans pertinent issues

To expect any sense of decorum or decency on the part of our political parties in the electoral battle is akin to fantasy. Inanities are also not totally unexpected, considering intellectual limitations of the political parties and politicos. But, the insidious discourse often dominated by hatred-filled expletives in the run-up to the just concluded elections provokes justifiable questions concerns about the fate of the country. In the United State and UK, debates between opposition contenders revolve around socio-economic issues. Though aggressive and acrimonious, the contentions and arguments debated by the political parties are based on genuine problems and factual data. But here in India, problems plaguing the country – like poverty, hunger, unemployment, economic stagnancy – are not a priority.

This election contest has assumed notoriety, not just because of the degenerative nature, but also gross violation of the fair play and rules of the game with the referee – ECI – ignoring the foreplay. Pollsters like Prashant Kishore – in an interview to Adani’s NDTV –and, many other spin doctors have been allowed to disseminate predictions even before the completion of all the phases. The intent and motive was to influence the next three phases of elections. And, as expected, Prashant Kishore and most of the spin doctors had projected a BJP-led NDA win. It is obvious that the predictions – specifically by Prashant Kishore – were aimed at adding to the numbers of the BJP.

After being subjected to the manifestation of the most primitive psyche and cacophony during the run-up to the elections, we are in all probability going to witness the most spectacular cross-migrations by politicos. Here is the probable scenario. The BJP-led NDA can consider itself secure if it wins even a little less than half the total strength, i.e. 250-272 seats. On the contrary, the I.N.D.I.A block needs to win around 300 seats – considering the fragility of the alliance partners - to keep its disparate flock together. One common factor that can keep the alliance together in forming the government is their objective to decimate the BJP. Among the I.N.D.I.A alliance, three partners are sure to sail along with the Congress – NCP- Sharad Pawar, DMK, Shiv Sena – UBT, RJD in Bihar and SP in Uttar Pradesh during critical situations, since they consider any tie-up with BJP as infeasible and as a threat to their own identities.

Mamata Banerjee’s vacillating attitude towards the Congress reflects that Trinamool Congress cannot be a reliable INDIA bloc alliance partner. For the INDIA bloc the threat of breakdown somewhere along the way is a possibility, since the Congress is a rival of the TMC in West Bengal. A positive that can emerge for the INDIA block is the acrimony and break-up between friends-turned-foes, BJP and Odisha’s BJD Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik had decided to go it alone. There is a possibility that the BJD may join the India block if the latter has the numbers to power.

For the BJP-led NDA, the chronic wall jumper, Nitish Kumar may prove to be a liability. But the BJP can offset the loss of BJD, and possibly JDU from its group, with the addition of Telugu Desam in the NDA. Telugu Desam may to a significant extent compensate for either JDU or BJD parting ways with the NDA.

In a few days from now, in the event of shortage of numbers to form the government, the country may be witnessing the grand finale with unprecedented horse trading and Members of Parliament deserting their parties, jumping ship, and gravitating towards the power centre.

(The writer is a senior print, electronic and digital media journalist)