Reliance Jio 4G launch a major threat to data tariffs, could disrupt data pricing

NEW DELHI: Mukesh Amabni-owned Reliance Jio's launch of 4G services is a major threat to data tariffs, and it could disrupt data pricing, leading to data realisations softening by more than 30%-40% from the current levels in FY17, according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).

"A steep decline in data realisations coupled with gradual growth in consumption volumes could lower the data ARPUs. Data ARPUs have been growing led by growth in per capita volumes consumed which is offsetting the declining data realizations," the agency said in a note.

The proposed 4G launch will intensify competition which will squeeze the market share, EBITDA margins and credit metrics of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, the agency said, adding that Reliance Jio will look to unsettle some of the large operators in their prominent geographies, leading to a re-distribution of the market share which is currently concentrated among the top three operators.

Airtel is the market leader of the Indian telecom market with revenue market share and subscriber market share of around 30% and 24%, respectively. Idea on the other hand has been witnessing robust growth thus catching up to Vodafone which is at the second place. The three operators together cater to around 60% of the total telecom subscribers while they hold more than 67% of the revenue market share.

The agency said that voice revenue are likely to remain moderate in FY17 on stagnant minutes of usage (MoU) and further competition in call realisations. It expects data revenue to remain stagnant on a 30%-40% decline in data realisations/megabyte in FY17 driven by RJio's launch, while support from data consumption growth to data average revenue per user will be gradual.

The operators' debt profile will deteriorate in FY17 as the agency expects them to incur high capex on network expansion and acquisition of additional spectrum through trading, largely to compete with Reliance Jio.

In the third quarter FY16, data realisations/megabyte declined by 4.5%-5.5% sequentially for the top two listed entities Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular. "This price decline was in anticipation of the RJio launch, and therefore expects a further softening of data tariffs in FY17. 8%-10% qoq growth in data volumes consumption shall not be sufficient to support data average revenue per users which shall therefore moderate in FY17," the agency said.

Ind-Ra expects voice revenue to decline in FY17 due to market maturity and competitive pricing. MoU and voice revenue are flattish as the voice market has matured.

Airtel and Idea reduced voice tariffs by 8%-10% over 2015 to arrest declining minutes of usage (MoU) and to counter competition. Voice also faces threat from data cannibalization, the agency said.

Ind-Ra expects the credit metrics of operators to stretch in FY17. They are likely to increase investments in FY17 to upgrade, install and augment network capability, sensing a long-term opportunity in broadband and threat from RJio.

While the operators would upgrade their infrastructure to meet data requirement, they would also be required to install new infrastructure to roll-out newer technologies. They shall also follow debt-driven acquisitions of further spectra to augment their holdings.

Spectrum will drive consolidation in the sector in line with the long-term roll-out plans of these operators. "The recent guidelines allowing spectrum sharing and trading transactions within industry participants is a positive move for the sector as smaller players will be able to monetise their spectrum assets while bigger players enhance their spectrum holdings," the agency reckons.

It added that a few spectrum trading deals were reported in FY16 which will gain further momentum in FY17.

Source: www.techgig.com