Taliban’s Afghanistan requires sensitive handling by India

China and Afghanistan have now become incomprehensible countries to Pakistan! Till the other day, China was a great ally of Pakistan. Today other countries—especially India—cannot accurately predict how China will behave, but even if China does not overtly act against Pakistan, its manner still inspires fear in Pakistan, whose belief that Taliban would embrace terrorism on Afghanistan’s soil for Pakistan’s benefit has now completely eroded. Pakistan never thought the Taliban would come to see them as a threat instead of an ally. The policies Pakistan followed that funded and nurtured terrorism are now teaching the country a hard lesson.

Despite criticism, the fact that Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Amir Mattaki, came to India sends a strong signal that there may be some shifts in bilateral relations. No matter how carefully India conducts its diplomacy, some officials in lobbying circles are already saying that the Afghan government is leaning toward us. In the past, even Israel’s ties with India were not straightforward — without official relations there were backchannel dealings, which the Congress government of that time acknowledged. But does that mean we should now have backchannel relations with the Taliban?

Foreign policy experts are wondering whether this marks a change in India’s diplomatic approach and a clarification of its stance on the Taliban. It can be said that this is the first time since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 2021 that an Afghan minister has met India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar. India’s national security adviser Ajit Doval also met the Afghan minister. In fact, the UN Security Council lifting of travel restrictions on the visiting minister Mutaqi removed the obstacle to his coming to India. There is no need to start guessing about who will benefit from these meetings. For Pakistan, however, this has been an unexpected setback. The subsequent developments between Pakistan and Afghanistan are making the former’s position quite clear. The conflicts have involved the militaries of both countries and have resulted in casualties on both sides. This cannot be seen as anything other than a sudden development in world affairs.

The joint statement by India and Afghanistan has enraged Pakistan. In that statement, Afghan representatives strongly and emphatically condemned the Pahalgam incident, which Pakistan took as a shocking blow. Moreover, the Afghans’ firm declaration that they will not allow their territory to be used by Pakistan against India has infuriated Pakistan. However, considering the presence of Mullah Haybatullah’s parallel administration in Kandahar, Kabul’s ability to demonstrate its effectiveness on such issues will need to be proven.

What India must keep in mind!

Kabul is caught between fear and indecision over the distribution of funds between Islamic State – Khorasan (IS-K) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Kabul is torn about whom it should oppose. That’s why Pakistan has intensified its propaganda on this issue. The Taliban are not free of blame, but they may not be able to act recklessly in the current circumstances, contrary to what Pakistan claims. This is exactly where India must play a key role. The Taliban have taken steps to eradicate drugs, change cropping patterns, protect local farmers, and take measures on exports.

With large drug seizures along India’s borders, the Narcotics Control Bureau needs to take appropriate action in response. Delhi also needs to help change Kabul’s style of governance on women’s education. How much India can influence Afghanistan through such policy engagement will be decided by the future. Afghanistan is a neighboring country. If India can cautiously cooperate with the increasingly moderate Taliban administration—without ignoring necessary criticism—there is a chance for the old atmosphere of goodwill between the two countries to be restored.

Under the leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, the Pakistan army will not stop pressing down on a weakened Afghanistan. Pakistan will spare no effort in strengthening its military influence. Can Kabul stand up to Pakistan on equal terms? Will Pakistan, prepared for ongoing clashes, pass up the chance to strike and weaken Afghanistan just as it’s trying to move toward peace and development? Can Afghanistan, with its fragile economy, govern without financial support from other countries? No one can now predict the outcomes of these crucial questions.

India faces a complex problem. It is indisputable that Pakistan aided the Taliban in incidents that preceded the Pahalgam episode. Given the current clashes and disputes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, how can India establish relations with an Afghanistan governed by the Taliban, beyond reproach? How can it handle this diplomatically and sensitively? If China continues its double-dealing while maintaining friendly ties with Pakistan as before, India’s foreign policy will face serious problems.

U S President Donald Trump—who has a confrontational streak—is always ready to strike at anything he perceives as against America. Only if India’s foreign-policy experts work tirelessly, day and night, will there be any chance of resolving this issue. There is no choice but to wait and see. Reports that Pakistan and Afghanistan reached a ceasefire agreement in Doha should be seen as a positive development. But improved relations between the two countries must not create problems for other nations. If terrorism resurges on a large scale, the consequences will be felt exactly where the injuries were inflicted. Problems will continue to remain.

(The writer is a retired IPS officer, who has served as an Additional DGP of Andhra Pradesh)