It’s temerity vs trepidation

The Election Commission has cast the die for the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, to evaluate the outcome of his game of chance with the announcement of schedule for the general elections to the Assemblies of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. It is literally a game of chance for Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party as they have stubbornly ventured into playing a loaded financial game of demonetisation.

Ahead of the prestigious UP elections, Modi has deliberately played his political gambit thus setting the tone and tenor of the elections and its dominant political theme. These five States give their people a rare opportunity to judge Modi's performance and pass verdict ahead of others, a long time after one did so with Indira Gandhi. And India is eager to know whether it wants to sail with Modi into the turbulent future.

Today onwards, it is the monetary policy and its impact that would be the fulcrum of the political discourse. The attempt to slur Modi's image would get bigger and the latter will spare no chance to stick rivals on the black money bill board. It was Ceaser's call originally to say "let the game be ventured' to oust his rivals, but Modi did the same to test his radical policies at one go.

A united rank and file of his party would challenge the bristling breakaway Opposition groups in these elections. The fight will be all about Modi's political temerity and the Opposition's moral trepidation. The queered pitch for Samajwadi Party due to its internal strife will test Akhilesh's skills severely as he embarks on his campaign hinged to the developmental plank and his somewhat clean image.

Mayawati has already gone ahead and chosen nearly 100 Muslim candidates while the breakaway faction of the Yadav's could harm Akhilesh further by aligning with the Bharatiya Janata Party if the split is in place. No one might talk of caste and religion, yet 'social engineering' will be the mainstay of elections which means that the Apex Court could do nothing about it.

Punjab and Goa are in for a triangular contest with Arvind Kejriwal's foray and it all boils down to who is going to lose because of him. Even if Congress gains Punjab, it is the voters of the Uttar Pradesh whom it should fear more as a good show by Modi means a long holiday for Rahul again as there is little to hope for his national party in Uttarakhand and Manipur which could turn out to be its return gift to Modi.

Modi's party will be as wary of the results as these could impact the crucial elections in Gujarat later this year alongside in Himachal Pradesh. A loss of face will be a serious setback to Modi and his policies and will also have its bearing on his image internationally. It would be difficult for him to handle the strident Opposition that tastes success once again after Bihar. What if Modi triumphs? Well, there will be no stopping him then!