Pick your Prime Minister!

Since Dr Manmohan Singh declared at a media conference on Friday in Delhi that he would hand over the baton to a new Prime Minister after the general elections in May 2004, there is a general curiosity among the people as to who would be the next Prime Minister. Nobody expected in 2004 that Congress president Sonia Gandhi would refuse to accept the responsibility of running the government and choose Dr Singh, instead, to lead the government to be formed by the UPA. The former Finance Minister was a dark horse.

The general view was that Sonia Gandhi would take the reins from Atal Behari Vajpayee. Who would take the mantle from Dr Singh now? Who is going to be the dark horse in May-June 2014? There are at least eight politicians whose names are being discussed in the public domain as probable candidates for Prime Minister. It is interesting to note that while two of them are women, half of them are unmarried. The main contenders for the top slot, Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, have no parivar to think of. Let us examine the chances of each leader.

Unlike in the previous General Elections, the aam aadmi, the common man, of India has several options before him to choose as his Prime Minister to rule the country for the next five years. He has a range of accomplished and not so accomplished leaders to pick from. He can go for a male politician or a female. You have a Dalit, an OBC or a BC or a Maratha or a Brahmin. You have a lawyer, an IITian, an undergraduate and an intellectual. There is a North Indian or a West Indian or a South Indian or an East Indian.

All kinds of politicians who can become Prime Minister are on the offer. It is for the people of the country to select through the ballot in 2014. The voters in 2014 general elections can directly and indirectly impact the selection of the next Prime Minister by voting methodically. The Indian voter had always proved that his native intelligence is far superior to the combined intelligence of politicians, political observers, political pundits, political commentators and reporters working for the print and the electronic media.

A method has been perceptible in the way the common people across the country vote. The collective wisdom of the voters in India is primarily responsible for the survival of democracy for more than six-and-a-half decades. There is no way for all the voters in the country to arrive at a consensus, but the way the results go always reveals a pattern.

How can the voters select their Prime Minister who is indirectly elected by the MPs? Ours is not a presidential system like the US. Voters cannot elect their PM in a parliamentary democracy. But they can suggest their preference and can even have their way if they follow a particular pattern in voting. For instance, if the voters of the country would like to perpetuate UPA with Rahul Gandhi as new Prime Minister in place of Manmohan Singh, who is prepared to hand over the baton, what all they have to do is to vote for the Congress in large numbers so as to give it at least 200 seats. They have to elect a sizable number of MPs who contest on the symbols of Nationalist Congress party and other future allies of the Congress.

If they cannot persuade themselves to vote for an inexperienced politician and a party which has been accused of rampant corruption, policy paralysis and economic mismanagement, they have to consider the challenger Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP. The Gujarat strongman has been strutting the national stage, exuding confidence bordering on arrogance and claiming to have the blessings of many stalwarts – dead and alive. He invokes the name of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in big way by planning to construct a giant size statue of the Iron Man of India.

If the voters of the country decide to give an opportunity to the erstwhile chaiwala, they have to give the BJP more than 200 seats. Anything less than that would not suffice to attract allies who are prepared to accept Modi as PM. There are only two parties, other than the BJP, which publicly declare that they have no problem supporting Modi. They are: Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal.

Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK has been saying that Modi is her friend. But it does not mean she would automatically support his candidature. Telugu Desam Party (TDP) can be banked upon. But the TDP-BJP combine may not be able to do wonders as things stand today in AP, whether divided or undivided.

Naveen Patnaik of Biju Janata Dal would vote for a Third Front or Federal Front rather the NDA from which he walked out earlier. In case the BJP nets less than 200 seats, it can still head the NDA with Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the CM of MP as PM. The popular leader from MP has former Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani’s blessing. More parties would be willing to join the coalition headed by the BJP if the helmsman is anyone other than Modi.

The BJP and the NDA are thought of as alternatives to the Congress and UPA by default. But with the Aam Aadmi Party intent on replicating its Delhi experiments in as many States as possible, it is no more a case of Rahul Gandhi versus Narendra Modi. Arvind Kejriwal’s credentials cannot be ignored.

Now that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made it clear that he is not available for the top executive post in the country to represent UPA-III, Rahul Gandhi would be named most probably at the AICC session to be held in Delhi on the 17th. Since UPA getting a third terms appears highly unlikely, what with the drubbing the Congress received in the four major States which went to polls in the fag-end of last year, Rahul Gandhi has to prepared himself for a term in the Opposition.

Modi’s gait until recently was that of a putative Prime Minister, but the unexpected Delhi Assembly results has stymied the spring in his feet. Both the AAP and the BJP will have to share the same slice of the pie and vie for the attention of the urban voters. There are an estimated 200 urban constituencies where the BJP is hoping to do well, except in States like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. But the AAP is threatening to go national and offer serious fight in at least 100 constituencies.

AAP will not be able to win a majority of seats in the next Lok Sabha, but it can prevent the BJP from getting near the magic figure of 200, if not ‘272 plus’ that the BJP election committee set as its ultimate goal.

In case AAP succeeds in winning more than 40 seats, the Congress may repeat the Delhi experiment and ask Arvind Kejriwal to take over from Manmohan Singh, providing outside support. Other parties like Biju Janata Dal and Trinamool Congress may follow suit since they believe in promoting corruption-free public life.

The Left parties should have no objection to even join the Cabinet headed by Kejriwal as AAP believes in socialism as a political philosophy. That would be a dream sequence. But one cannot rule it out after witnessing the miracle that happened in Delhi barely a month ago.

If AAP cannot win many seats and both NDA and UPA fail to make the grade, parties other than the BJP and the Congress would have majority seats among themselves, making a third front a probability. There are at least four regional leaders who can wear the mantle.

The first aspirant is Mulayam Singh Yadav of Samajwadi Party (SP). Soon after Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, his father Mulayam Singh, the chief of SP, made it clear that the only post he can think of at his level is that of Prime Minister. Had Muzaffarnagar riots not occurred and the euphoria in favour of the young Akhilesh been sustained in the second year, SP could have been confident of bagging 40 out of the 80 seats in the largest State. That number would have made Mulayam Singh Yadav a front-runner among the Prime Ministerial candidates of the Third Front.

BJP also depends on UP for numbers. If it cannot do well in this State, the hopes of Modi becoming PM would be dashed.

Of the three unpredictable ladies of Indian politics, Mayawati and Jayalalithaa are contenders for the post of Prime Minister. Mamatha Banerjee is busy with firefighting in West Bengal. Didi is not in a position to look beyond Kolkata. If Mayawati can manage to get Brahmin votes back through a tie-up with the Congress party, and manage to win more than 35 of the 80 seats in UP, Behanji would be a candidate of the Third Front.

On the other hand, if Jayalalithaa can take 30 or more seats from Tamil Nadu, Amma can bag the top post. The AIADMK had passed a resolution, saying that it was high time a Tamilian became the Prime Minister. Both Mayawati and Jayalalithaa have a proven record of governing big States as Chief Ministers for more than one term. They fought street battles against male-dominated parties and stood their ground.

Some parties which are weary of the ways of these two ladies, might opt for Naveen Patnaik for the top slot. He is highly educated and incorruptible, and has done a lot of good work in Odisha.

Yogendra Yadav, the strategy and policy guru of the AAP, said before the meeting of the executive committee on Saturday in Delhi that his dream was to see Arvind Kejriwal become the Prime Minister. The AAP looks pretty serious in its determination to realise its national ambition. It declared that it would fight Lok Sabha elections in as many States as possible.

Arvind Kejriwal

Birth date : August 16, 1968

Birth place : Siwani in Haryana

Education : Schooling in Sonepat, Ghaziabad and Hisar; B Tech from IIT, Kharagpur

Marital status: Married to Sunita, an IRS officer

Children : The couple has a daughter and a son

Interests : Kejriwal is a vegetarian and has been practising Vipas sana for many years.

Positions held:

• He worked at Tata Steel from 1989 to 1992

• He joined the Indian Revenue Service (IRS) in 1995

• In 2006, he resigned from the IRS

• Founded an NGO, Public Cause

Research Foundation, in 2007.

• In 2012, he launched Aam Aadmi Party

• Defeated three-time CM Sheila Dixit in the 2013 Delhi election

• Becomes Delhi’s youngest Chief

Minister on December 28, 2013

Movements led: He is well-known for his efforts to bring and implement the RTI Act at grassroots level. It was his role in drafting a proposed Jan Lokpal Bill as well as participation in the

movement for it led by Anna Hazare that made him quite famous.

Recognitions:

• Won Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership in 2006

• Awarded a grant and fellowship by the Association for India's Development (2009)

• Policy Change Agent of the Year, Economic Times Awards (2010)

• NDTV Indian of the Year along with Anna Hazare (2011)

• CNN-IBN Indian of the Year 2013

Narendra Modi

Birth date : September 17, 1950

Birth place : Vadnagar in Mehsana

district of Bombay State (present-day Gujarat)

Education : Schooling in Vadnagar; Master’s degree in political science from Gujarat

University Positions held

Marital status: Unmarried

Social status: Born to poor parents, ran a tea stall and worked in a canteen

Positions held:

• Full-time pracharak of RSS

• Headed ABVP in Gujarat, organised

agitations during Emergency

• 14th Chief Minister of the state of

Gujarat since 2001

• Selected in June 2012 to head poll campaign for 2014 election

• Appointed to BJP Parliamentary Board in March 2013

• Made BJP Prime Ministerial Candidate in September 2013

• He is currently in his fourth

consecutive term as Chief Minister

Recognitions:

• Gujarat Ratna by Shri Poona Gujarati Bandhu Samaj at Ganesh Kala Krida Manch

• e-Ratna award by the Computer

Society of India

• Best Chief Minister – In a nationwide survey conducted in 2006 by India Today magazine, Narendra Modi was declared the Best Chief Minister in the country.

• Asian Winner of the FDI Personality of the Year Award for 2009 by the FDI

magazine

• In March 2012, Modi appeared on the cover of the Asian edition of Time