Is BJP nervous about Delhi polls?

Even though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to pip the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) at the post in the Delhi assembly elections, doubts remain as to how much ahead it will be of its rival. In the last election, too, the BJP won more seats than the AAP although it fell short of the half-way mark in the 70-member legislature.

In the forthcoming contest, therefore, the BJP's first wish will be to win at least 35 seats although its combative president, Amit Shah, is predicting success in two-thirds of the seats. Considering, however, that his much-vaunted "Mission 44" came a cropper in Jammu and Kashmir, his latest boast is likely to be seen as a case of whistling in the dark.

The reason is the belief that the AAP will not be a pushover. It is this expectation of a party led by an "anarchist", as Narendra Modi told an election rally, giving the BJP a run for its money which has induced the latter to roll out the big guns for the contest. Apart from seven or eight cabinet ministers, a large number of MPs have been drafted by the party to campaign during the run-up to D-day, which is February 7.

Besides, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP's friend, philosopher and guide, has decided to depute its workers for field work. To the uninitiated, all this effort might seem like the wielding of a sledge-hammer to swat a fly. After all, the BJP is led by unarguably the most popular Prime Minister the country has seen since the first three years of Rajiv Gandhi's tenure before the Bofors howitzer scandal started his downfall.

In contrast, the AAP, though it came second in the last election with 28 seats against the BJP's 32, is still a novice in the political field with a muddled ideology and an organizational base comprising mostly enthusiastic amateurs. It has also experienced desertions from its ranks of high-profile members like Kiran Bedi, who is now the BJP's CM candidate, and the ebullient Shazia Ilmi.Moreover, the AAP, and especially its voluble leader, Arvind Kejriwal, are yet to get over the opprobrium and ridicule it suffered for having "run away" after 49 days in office, which made Modi call him AK-49.

Notwithstanding these handicaps, the AAP's seeming advantage is that it enjoys the backing of the urban poor and the minorities. To these groups, the AAP remains the only hope in the absence of the Congress which is expected to finish as a poor third in the race. However, the reported observation of a BJP minister that he wished that the Congress wasn't so weak showed how eagerly a nervous party was hoping for the Grand Old Party of yore to cut into the AAP's votes.

What the BJP's angst shows, however, is its realization that the Delhi poll is a great deal more important than the earlier state assembly elections. Its failure to get a majority on its own confirm yet again that it tends to stumble if it faces a stiff challenge, even from an untested opponent.

By:Amulya Ganguli