Influenced by multiple local and global factors like US President Trump’s tariff threats, strengthening of the dollar against the rupee, weak Q3 earnings, and domestic growth slowdown; the domestic stock markets consolidated for better part of the week and closed on a weak note. BSE Sensex declined 628.15 points, or 0.82 per cent, while NSE Nifty went down 133.35 points, or 0.58 per cent. It is pertinent to observe that in the ongoing rout in the small- and mid-cap space that has drained portfolios, investors have been advised by experts to take refuge in large-caps. However, the Nifty Next-50 index, which is classified as a large-cap index suffered 22.3 per cent decline surpassing even the small-cap index’s 20.2 per cent drop. In contrast, the Nifty-50 corrected by just 12.9 per cent during this period. In volatile times understand the importance of buying good quality stocks and/or focusing on valuations rather than chase momentum. Quality matters and wealth creation is all about having a high-quality balanced portfolio. Use the volatile phase to exit underperforming stocks with weak fundamentals. Remember, the time spent in the market is more important than timing the market.

You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.

F&O / SECTOR WATCH

Heightened volatility was seen in several stock futures triggered by ‘Trump Tantrums’. Nifty shed around half a percent, while Bank Nifty lost close to a quarter percent due to uncertainty over the impact of US trade policy. In the options market, prominent Call Open Interest for Nifty was seen at the 23,100 and 23,000 strikes, while the notable Put Open Interest was at the 22,500 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call Open Interest was seen at the 49,500 and 50,000 strikes, whereas notable Put Open Interest at the 49,000 and 48,500 strikes. Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty’s Call options settled at 13.50 per cent, while Put options conclude at 14.19 per cent. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 14.86 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio of Open Interest (PCR OI) for the week was 0.90. With the key support level of 22,800 breached, the downward trend may persist. The next critical support level to watch is 22,500, while resistance levels stand at 23,000 and 23,200. Anticipate Nifty to trade within the 22,500-23,200 range over the coming week. Currently bias is under control of bears as of now so any market rise should be considered a sell-on-rise opportunity. Metals, PSE, and Energy were the major gainers, while selling pressure was seen in Auto, Pharma, and FMCG sectors. Zomato and Jio Financial Services have entered into the Nifty-50 index as part of the semi-annual reshuffle. Oil marketing major Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and FMCG player Britannia Industries have been excluded.

(The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)