Lok Sabha polls 2014: SWOT Analysis

Battle lines are drawn for the upcoming general elections and various media channels, poll analysts, psephologists and even the public are engaged in discussion on which party or coalition will win and who will lead India for the next five years.

While the ruling Congress party and the Opposition BJP party are formulating strategies and even making efforts to forge new alliances to strengthen existing ones in UPA and NDA. Regional parties are also becoming smarter getting ready to have their pound of flesh. This is making it interesting as leaders from various parties have started weighing options and making their moves on deciding whether to continue in their respective parties or look for a winnable alternative.

Main opposition party BJP stormed ahead in the election year announcing Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as its PM candidate. Though Congress stopped short of naming any PM candidate, elevation of Rahul Gandhi as its vice president showed everyone as to who calls the shots in the election battle. In the midst of all this some regional parties like Mamata Bannerjee's TMC, Jayalalitha's AIADMK, Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP are exploring options of Third Front.

Many media channels and market research organisations came with numerous surveys, opinion polls predicting winners. Obvious that the parties predicted to win support the polls, while others demand ban on it reasoning that the polls will influence people. Though people don't necessarily vote going by the polls, many will be interested in which way trends favour. They will be interested to know the strengths and weakness of various parties and leaders before making up their choice.

There are only two dispensations competing with each other for the top honours. They are Congress led UPA coalition and BJP led NDA coalition.

Following is the SWOT analysis of the two parties and coalitions.

UPA led by Congress

Strengths

In the Congress and among its allies, no one is opposing the leadership of Rahul Gandhi or for that matter Sonia Gandhi. Though the Congress party and its UPA is predicted to perform poorly with only around 100 seats, anything around 150 mark will keep it in the hunt. No one can match the negotiation skills of Congress managers.

Weaknesses

10-years-rule of the coalition is marred with scams, scandals, rise in prices etc. This has resulted in virtual wipe out in the recently held five state elections where Congress lost in four states. Rahul Gandhi's admission of Congress men in anti-Sikh riots in 1984, weakened its stand on riots vis-a-vis BJP and Narendra Modi.

Opportunities

Congress is always known to peak at the right time. BJP rose too early and there is always scope for Congress to reduce the gap. Congress always can bank on regional parties trying for third front, who are anti-Modi and anti-BJP.

Threats

Biggest threat is anti incumbency. Lot of scandals are hitting day in and day out and predictions in all opinion polls may work against the party.

NDA led by BJP

Strengths

Narendra Modi's leadership, oratory skills and proven development as Gujarat CM.

Weaknesses

Gujarat riots against Modi and ongoing cases may weaken his leadership. Some allies too have reservations on supporting Modi as PM. Even BJP itself is facing internal opposition.

Threats

Its allies too pray secretly that BJP don't get too many seats for the fear of their voices getting marginalised. BJP failed to capitalise to anti-incumbency in the last polls too.

Opportunities

Scams and corruption against Congress led UPA. Mishandling of Congress may act as blessing in disguise.

Third Front

Strengths

Regional aspirations of people may work in its favour. It can embrace any party which is its strength.

Weaknesses

Many leaders like Mamata Bannerjee, Prakash Karat, Karunanidhi, Jayalalitha, Jagan, Mulayalam, Mayawathi cannot make it a viable alternative.

Opportunities

If both the Congress and BJP fail to win maximum seats, these parties will hit a jackpot.

Threats

Third front is perceived as opportunistic formation as it comes into force only during elections and disappear after elections.

AAP

Strengths

AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal connected chord with educated lot with the promise of fight against corruption. Its 49-day-rule in Delhi appealed to educated lot as the Dynamism of Arvind Kejriwal appealed to all.

Weaknesses

Lack of finances to fight elections. Lack of time and though corruption is talked in media, it is not an issue with the masses.

Opportunities

Boldness to take on even corporate giants like Reliance. Corruption and weak administration of various parties.

Threats

Its behavior as irresponsible opposition party even while ruling Delhi. Taking support of corrupt Congress in Delhi.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of our organisation.