Is AAP a bubble that will burst?

The Congress has offered its ‘unconditional’ support in Delhi to the Aam Admi Party, which has refused, knowing the trap that it may turn out to be. Accepting it will make the Congress a hostage to the party it trounced. Besides, it runs the risk of losing the support of those who voted for it. Nor will it be able to pursue the politics of change it promised.

When the BJP turned down the Delhi Lieutenant Governor’s offer to form a government, it was projected as adherence to principles. When AAP refused to accept his offer, it was dubbed as irresponsible.

The attempts by both the mainline parties to do down AAP betrays a nervousness about this fledgling organisation which has emerged as a wild card in Indian politics.

That Anna Hazare has agreed to call off his fast unto death, even if the government passes a watered down version of the Jan Lok Pal Bill, which he would not countenance two years ago, shows that there are many who would like to isolate the AAP today.

AAP has made the kind of showing which neither its opponents nor its protagonists had expected. There have been umpteen cases in the past when activists, who had mobilised people at the grass-root level around issues, came a cropper when they contested elections. This happened to that extent what we are seeing today is a new and unprecedented development in Indian politics.

AAP owes its phenomenal success to a mood in the country, which is against the traditional politician—he has become a dirty word--and it is a sentiment which has been growing, not diminishing in recent years.

Is AAP a bubble that will burst after people have given vent to their anger against the ruling party/the political class/? Or is it an entity which will demonstrate a staying power that could surprise many because it is an idea whose time has come?

The other question that is being asked all around is this: Can AAP checkmate the Narendra Modi juggernaut nationally, just as it reined in the BJP in Delhi?

The answer to these questions will depend on how politics pans out in the coming weeks. There are many factors going for the AAP today. The most important, as already mentioned, is the prevalent mood in the country, which enabled them to win 28 seats in the Delhi assembly without having a political network or election machinery which had the wherewithal to bring people out of their homes, to transport them to the polling booth, or offer them inducements to vote. People came on their own in large numbers—and AAP was a factor responsible for the rise in voting in Delhi this time by a whopping 10%.

The AAP effect has already brought about a palpable change in the functioning of established parties. The BJP, which is only five seats short of a majority in Delhi, is not getting into the game of “jorh-torh” this time that political parties normally indulge in. It was compelled to project Dr Harsh Vardhan, known for his clean image, as its chief ministerial candidate in Delhi.

Clearly, AAP’s appeal has cut across caste, class, community. It struck a chord in middle class colonies as well as in the jhuggi jhopdi clusters, and its candidates won 9 out of the 12 reserved seats in Delhi. And now that the party has come near enough the finishing line, the minorities, who may not have wanted to “waste” their vote—and by and large they stuck to the Congress —may look at the AAP with new eyes. However, the mood that AAP tapped into in Delhi is not confined to the capital alone. Narendra Modi’s rise on the national stage is also about this mood, which is looking for a new leadership and a new politics.

The AAP is planning to go national, and has its units already in 309 districts, where it would obviously want to field Lok Sabha candidates. The party brass is also planning to invite individuals across the country to contest from areas where they have worked for years around people’s issues, like Medha Patkar. As also those who have a clean image but are feeling frustrated in existing parties. It may also field candidates against powerful politicians—like Rahul Gandhi, Arun Jaitley, Kapil Sibal, Sharad Pawar and even Narendra Modi-- to acquire a higher profile, just as Kejriwal took on—and defeated-- Sheila Dixit in her constituency.

AAP’s catchment area is going to be the same as that of Modi-led BJP, essentially the Hindi heartland. The AAP is likely to have a better chance in the urban constituencies—there are around 100 of them—which were otherwise expected to go the BJP way in 2014. Like the BJP, AAP may have an appeal in metros of Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and city constituencies like Chandigarh, Gurgaon, Meerut.

Given the prevalent mood, AAP has the potential to win 40-50 Lok Sabha seats, though this may sound far-fetched today. Equally important, even if it does not emerge victor—it has after all only four months to get its act together—AAP may end up helping the existing regional parties, where they are strong, but have to face a resurgent BJP, as in UP and Bihar. To that extent, AAP could end up reducing the BJP tally, which, but for the presence of this new force, be higher, given the anger against the Congress—as happened in Delhi.

It is early days yet to come to any conclusion. AAP is a fledgling organisation. The BJP, on the other hand, is an established party of six decades standing, and has the cadre of the RSS behind it, which has already swung into action to support Narendra Modi, and Modi has already generated a certain momentum of support.

And yet, the ground is fertile for AAP in many parts of the country. Much will however depend on how unitedly, wisely, humbly and strategically its leaders - every attempt is being made to divide their ranks - move in the coming weeks.

And yet, India is changing at the ground level. What looked impossible yesterday is being made possible today. One thing is clear, and AAP leaders are clear about this. They have to go national and go for the jugular, or they will be limited to Delhi.

Theoretically speaking, AAP could make a national showing, for the ground is fertile for its emergence in many parts of India. Its leaders will undoubtedly have to move wisely, unitedly, humbly and strategically.