AAP's rise brings an end to political paralysis in India

It is in the nature of man to be seduced by a new idea, captivated by a rare futurist vision, or lured by a charismatic leader. Any which way, it lends itself to the realm of fantasy. Ephemeral or abiding, time will tell. But guys, the Future is here! Perhaps 2014 will be the most decisive year of change for India since 1947.

We are on the threshold of a Freedom Movement II - a silent, sustained civil revolution, one that's taken a quantum leap like never before. It is completely defined and made-to-order by the urban middle class bourgeois, and the previously fence-sitting 'millennials', who comprise the 25-to-35 age group. These de facto game-changers have ushered in a rebellion at a velocity that threatens to obliterate the stasis of the Old Guard of both Congress and BJP, as well as their poodles: satraps of the likes of the Lalus, Mulayams, Pawars and Mayawatis.

In fact, these 40-year-old, Gandhi-topied somethings roam around like unwieldy flash-mobs, full of do-good ideas - though a tad incohesive, as of now - promising to produce a rabbit out of their hats, and an attempt at political whizcraft.

They are the Patron Saints of Change, utterly confused in their modus operandi. They seem to have no clue whether to opt for referendums or whether to keep over-committing, in their urgency to arrive as a mainstream challenger.

Today, almost every passive Indian has spurred himself from the inertia of being a hapless bystander, to turning into an activist in search of a truly free and fair land.

The thought of the AAP entering the national arena of politics as the watch-dog and arbiter of justice is the good news. A 40 to 50 seat win would firmly place these dark horses in the saddle to command as a 3rd Force, that would defeat the Congress, and uncomfortably chip away at the BJP's margins. But my fascination at the thrill of a Congress and Corruption-Free India ends here, as reality strikes. Forgive me my trespasses if I sound like Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini who predicted the collapse of the American economic order before the market meltdown struck.

But if a BJP-led Modi cannot form a stable government, or if the AAP has a major say, it is Annus horribillis for us all, post May 2014. The clichéd 'good economics makes for good politics' is a truism, tried and tested. Kejriwal's populist measures of freebees would come at the cost of higher taxation, add to the bills left behind by Congress welfarism. His socialist "left-of left" stance, a quasi-Marxist economic agenda, offers scant hope, seeming regressionist to a country that has experienced the benefits of liberalisation since 1991. What people want now is more decentralisation and less governmental control. What is further worrying in Kejriwal's frugal tokenism, are the signals it sends out beyond shelving the VIP culture.

Will people who've risen through the sweat of their brow be made to feel elitist in enjoying the fruits of their progress?

Either way, the rule of non-dynasts coming to power, whether Kejriwal or Modi, is a cheering thought, though the latter option is a better alternative.

Modi's decisive governance and business-friendly image will improve investor confidence, reign in foreign equity and improve the rupee-dollar parity over time.

Plus the best news in the offing could be a proposition that income-tax could be abolished, and a 2 per cent transaction-tax on banking imposed in lieu.

Either way, it will be progress over paralysis, with parties where the writ of collective leadership will run, and it will dispense with diarchy, dynasty or subversive authoritarianism. Four months away from predicting political certitudes sounds an eternity, but what's trending is a face-off between Modi and Kejriwal.

As for the Grand Old Party, they prepare to undergo their period of political penance in the back-benches of the opposition, as the Biblical saying goes: "the sins of the father are visited on the son", giving the New Guard time to reinvent itself over the next 5 years.