Indo-Bangla ties Modi-fied

To his credit, calling his visit an “incomplete mission,” Modi made a fresh commitment before leaving Dhaka to push through the Teesta river water sharing agreement at a later date. This pact is a must for India-Bangladesh ties to thrive on a new high and to help Hasina tell her people that she has really delivered. Modi and his Gujarat-2002 past were painted in dark black on Bangladeshi public mind till May last year. Thirteen months hence, Modi seems a totally different man in Bangladeshi mind. But it has to be sustained with follow-up actions that India often forgets to carry out

Bangladesh’s opposition leader Begum Khaleda Zia has urged visiting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to “help restore democracy” in her country that, by implication, was snatched by her arch-rival and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It was both a complaint to an India that she thinks supports Hasina, but also, for the first time, reposing of confidence in India.

Modi responded by telling her that democracy can flourish only if there is no terrorism – a direct hit at her alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamist parties. It was also a full-throated endorsement of Hasina, who has fought and continues to fight fundamentalism – despite four known attempts on her life.

India has made its political preference known with Modi declaring on Dhaka’s soil that it would oppose terrorism, and saying that on “zero tolerance on terrorism, Sheikh Hasina and I think alike.” History and politics have placed the two Begums of Bangladesh in rival camps that determine their attitude to India – whether or not India wants it.

Such is the position of the larger neighbour that played a key role in Bangladesh’s birth in 1971. It can be, and has been twisted and turned in Bangladesh to suite the political requirements, but cannot be ignored. Indira Gandhi was, undoubtedly, the ‘liberator,’ but opposition Jana Sangh, of which Modi’s BJP is the present-day avatar, was also totally in sync with her.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee had called Indira “Durga’ and ‘Amba’. Hence, it was appropriate that Vajpayee was honoured during the Modi visit. Indians of different political colours have been honoured last, including I K Gujral, during whose time the Ganga water-sharing pact was signed. Also honoured last year was President Pranab Mukherjee, a highly respected name who, among many things, as Finance Minister had piloted one billion dollar loan to Bangladesh.

The Indian approach has shown consistence. The Dhaka visit has yielded some concrete foreign policy gains. It is difficult to think of any person between Indira and Modi, who mesmerised the Bangladeshis. Indira had, of course, the liberation to her credit, while Modi won over the Bangladeshis when he tackled numerous issues and problems, resolving or trying to resolve many of them.

The “Modi, Modi” chants in response to his oratory and his invoking Tagore, Jibananad and other poets and places common to Bangladesh and India, stand testimony to his popularity. This is all the more creditable since Modi and his Gujarat-2002 past were painted in dark black on Bangladeshi public mind till May last year. Invited to an India-Bangladesh conference in May last year, before Modi became the PM, all my efforts to tell the Bangladeshi intelligentsia to “give Modi a try,” if he did win the election, had failed.

A dozen media houses and TV channels covering that election had also enhanced the Bangladeshi apprehensions. Thirteen months hence, Modi seems a totally different man in Bangladeshi mind. But it has to be sustained with follow-up actions that India often forgets to carry out. To his credit, calling his visit an “incomplete mission,” Modi made a fresh commitment before leaving Dhaka to push through the Teesta river water sharing agreement at a later date.

This pact is a must for India-Bangladesh ties to thrive on a new high and to help Hasina tell her people that she has really delivered. Unlike when she ditched Manmohan Singh, Mamata Banerjee displayed some grace by accompanying Modi to Dhaka, but she stalled Teesta pact again. One hopes she has mellowed a bit and the Centre’s largesse and her compulsions to stay on the right side of Modi, since she faces an election next year, would help India sign the Teesta treaty during Modi’s tenure.

Mamata had also stalled the Land Boundary Agreement, but so had the BJP and the Left, when UPA-2 had worked it out. It materialised under Modi, with Sushma Swaraj giving due credit to Manmohan Singh. The “Radcliff Line” drawn by Sir Cyril Radcliff, the most unnatural border between India and erstwhile East Pakistan, has now been corrected, 68 years after the Partition and 41 years after the Indira-Mujib pact that Indian Parliament had delayed ratifying. That ends long years of misery for 54,000 people.

Modi has sought to carry the states along on foreign policy issues pertaining to the neighbours. His mascot for the land boundary agreement was an unlikely Sikh speaking in fluent Bengali: BJP’s Rajya Sabha Member S S Ahluwalia. If Manmohan has reasons to be satisfied, so has Mukherjee, whose one billion dollar loan to Bangladesh has been doubled by Modi. Delays and dilly-dallying by Bangladesh have been political.

It had failed to grab Ratan Tata’s three billion dollar investments earlier. Now, Reliance and Modi-favourite Adani will produce huge quantities of power for energy-starved Bangladesh – and that too, using Bangladeshi gas, resolving another knotty issue that had hurt economic cooperation between the two. Even after the land agreement, that Modi compared with the fall of the Berlin Wall, India-Bangladesh border remains the longest India has with any neighbor, and also the most problematic.

There is large-scale smuggling of humans (illegal migration), goods, drugs and cattle. Bangladesh denies it, and gets extremely sensitive when India’s BSF, in trying to curb it, shoots down those engaged in illegal movement. In the joint declaration released at the end of the visit titled ‘notun projonmo - nayi disha,’ India has quietly buried the Tipaimukh hydropower project in Manipur that Bangladesh apprehends would have hit its water resources. This takes away a stick that Khaleda and opposition parties have used to beat Hasina with.

The joint statement and Modi's speech clearly indicate that the sub-regional group within Saarc would get top billing. India would seek to bypass troublesome Pakistan, Recounting his failure to get all Saarc countries to agree to a plan on connectivity, Modi said: “Just because some countries don't agree, it doesn't mean we cannot get ahead without them.”

In a clear sign that Modi intends to take 'Saarc-Minus 1’ forward, the joint statement also laid out details of joint power and connectivity projects being undertaken by BBIN sub-grouping (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal). Modi promised to help Bangladesh launch its first satellite, as well as a Buddhist tourism circuit. “Where there is Buddha, there can't be yudh (war).” Proposing Buddha tourism in a Muslim majority Bangladesh that professes secularism under Hasina, after praying at Dhakeshwari Mandir, is of great political and historic significance.